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Who will be Trump's Defense Secretary?

This is a market on predicting the individual who will be confirmed as the next Secretary of Defense.

Event Details

Total Volume: $225.1K
24h Volume: $4.1K
Total Liquidity: $100.0K
Markets: 10
Event Ends: 6/30/2025

Event Analysis

Summary

The search results reveal several potential candidates being considered for Secretary of Defense in a potential second Trump administration. Pete Hegseth appears to be a leading contender, with some sources indicating he has already been selected as Trump's nominee. Other candidates mentioned include Christopher Miller (who Trump praised), Joni Ernst, Mike Waltz, and Tom Cotton. The selection appears to be influenced by several key factors: loyalty to Trump, military experience, alignment with Trump's "America First" foreign policy views, and stance on key issues like NATO and border security. The search results suggest Trump is prioritizing individuals who share his skepticism of traditional military alliances and support more aggressive policies on issues like border security.

Analysis

Current Context

  • Trump is actively building his potential cabinet for a second term
  • Foreign policy challenges include NATO relations, military involvement at southern border, and tensions with China
  • Recent controversial statements by Trump about NATO suggest he may seek a Defense Secretary aligned with his skeptical view of international alliances

Leading Candidates

Pete Hegseth

  • Currently appears to be Trump's nominee according to multiple sources
  • Military veteran with service in Iraq and Afghanistan
  • Strong supporter of using military action against Mexican cartels
  • Aligns with Trump's aggressive stance on border security
  • Fox News personality with media experience

Christopher Miller

  • Former acting Defense Secretary under Trump
  • Received direct praise from Trump in recent statements
  • Experience with drawdown of troops in Afghanistan
  • Controversial role during January 6th events may affect confirmation

Other Contenders

  • Sen. Joni Ernst: Military veteran, Senate Armed Services Committee experience
  • Rep. Mike Waltz: National Guard service, Pentagon experience
  • Sen. Tom Cotton: Military background, strong China hawk

Key Factors to Watch

  1. Confirmation Politics
  • Republican Senate majority would be needed
  • Candidate's stance on controversial issues like NATO
  • Past statements about January 6th
  1. Policy Alignment
  • Views on NATO and international alliances
  • Position on military involvement at southern border
  • Stance on China and Taiwan
  1. Personal Loyalty
  • Previous support for Trump
  • Willingness to align with Trump's unconventional positions
  • Public statements about Trump's leadership

Recent Developments

  • Trump's recent NATO comments suggest preference for Defense Secretary skeptical of international commitments
  • Increasing focus on southern border security may favor candidates with strong positions on cartel intervention
  • Multiple sources confirming Hegseth as likely nominee

Prediction

Based on the available evidence, Pete Hegseth appears most likely to be confirmed as Trump's Secretary of Defense (45% probability), followed by Christopher Miller (20%). Other candidates like Ernst, Waltz, and Cotton each have roughly 10% probability, with a 15% chance of an unnamed alternative emerging.

Trump_Defense_Secretary

Pete_Hegseth:45.0%
Christopher_Miller:20.0%
Joni_Ernst:10.0%
Mike_Waltz:10.0%
Tom_Cotton:10.0%
Other:15.0%
Confidence: 7/10
Reasoning Score: 8/10

Market Options

Will Mike Waltz be Trump's Defense Secretary?

Yes
4.6%
No
95.4%
Liquidity: $100.0K
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Will Joni Ernst be Trump's Defense Secretary?

Yes
2.5%
No
97.5%
Liquidity: $100.0K
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Will Tom Cotton be Trump's Defense Secretary?

Yes
3.6%
No
96.4%
Liquidity: $100.0K
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Will Christopher Miller be Trump's Defense Secretary?

Yes
2.9%
No
97.1%
Liquidity: $100.0K
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Will Thomas Massie be Trump's Defense Secretary?

Yes
1.6%
No
98.5%
Liquidity: $100.0K
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Will Robert O'Brien be Trump's Defense Secretary?

Yes
2.1%
No
97.9%
Liquidity: $100.0K
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Will Mike Rogers be Trump's Defense Secretary?

Yes
4.2%
No
95.9%
Liquidity: $100.0K
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Will Mike Gallagher be Trump's Defense Secretary?

Yes
0.7%
No
99.4%
Liquidity: $100.0K
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Will Mike Pompeo be Trump's Defense Secretary?

Yes
0.8%
No
99.2%
Liquidity: $100.0K
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Will Pete Hegseth be Trump's Defense Secretary?

Yes
64.0%
No
36.0%
Liquidity: $100.0K
Trade →