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Who will replace Marco Rubio as Florida Senator?
This is a market on predicting who will succeed Marco Rubio as the next Senator from Florida.
Event Details
Total Volume: $200.0K
24h Volume: $3.5K
Total Liquidity: $89.5K
Markets: 12
Event Ends: 6/30/2025
Event Analysis
Summary
The question of who will replace Marco Rubio as Florida Senator has gained increased attention due to recent developments suggesting Rubio could potentially leave his Senate seat, either to serve as Trump's Secretary of State or as his vice presidential running mate. This creates an intriguing political scenario where Florida Governor Ron DeSantis would likely appoint Rubio's replacement.
The situation is particularly complex given the broader political dynamics in Florida, including DeSantis's own political aspirations and alignments, the state's rightward shift in recent years, and the potential impact of Trump's influence on the selection process. The timing and circumstances of any vacancy would significantly influence who emerges as Rubio's successor.
Analysis
Current Political Landscape
- Florida has trended increasingly Republican in recent years
- Ron DeSantis as governor would have appointment power if Rubio vacates
- Trump maintains significant influence over Florida Republican politics
Potential Scenarios
Scenario 1: VP Selection
- Recent reporting indicates Trump is seriously considering Rubio for VP
- Would require resignation from Senate, triggering appointment process
- Constitutional considerations regarding same-state residency could complicate this
Scenario 2: Secretary of State Appointment
- Some sources suggest potential Secretary of State role for Rubio
- Would similarly trigger Senate vacancy and appointment process
- Timing would align with potential Trump administration in 2025
Key Candidates for Appointment
- Keith Gross
- Already announced candidacy
- Strong alignment with Trump's America First agenda
- Limited political experience could be a factor
- Current Florida Republican Officials
- Various state legislators and officials could be considered
- DeSantis likely to favor allies from his administration
- Experience in Florida politics would be advantageous
Factors to Watch
- Trump's VP selection timeline (expected June 2024)
- DeSantis's political calculations and relationships
- Rubio's public statements and positioning
- Development of announced candidates' campaigns
Recent Developments
- NBC News reporting on Rubio as potential VP pick
- Increasing speculation about Cabinet positions
- Ongoing positioning by potential replacement candidates
Prediction
Based on available information, the most likely outcome is that Rubio will be selected as Trump's VP nominee, leading to a DeSantis appointee taking the Senate seat. The appointee is most likely to be a current Florida Republican official with strong ties to both DeSantis and Trump camps. Keith Gross, while announced, faces longer odds as an outsider candidate.
Rubio_replacement
DeSantis_appointed_official:45.0%
Keith_Gross:15.0%
Other_Republican:30.0%
Democratic_candidate:10.0%
Confidence: 7/10
Reasoning Score: 8/10
Sources
- https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/trump-eyes-sen-marco-rubio-potential-vp-pick-rcna144003
- https://redstate.com/jenniferoo/2024/11/13/confirmed-president-elect-trump-announces-marco-rubio-as-secretary-of-state-n2181960
- https://www.keithgross.com/
- https://www.palmbeachpost.com/story/news/politics/2024/02/16/democrats-look-to-beat-floridas-rick-scott-to-keep-senate-majority/72572034007/