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Who will Trump pick for FBI Director?
This is a market on who will be chosen as the next FBI Director by Trump.
Event Details
Total Volume: $179.2K
24h Volume: $1.6K
Total Liquidity: $21.0K
Markets: 5
Event Ends: 6/30/2025
Event Analysis
Summary
Donald Trump is actively interviewing candidates for FBI Director, with the intention to replace current Director Christopher Wray if he wins the presidency in 2024. Two main candidates have emerged from the search results: Kash Patel, a Trump loyalist and former national security official, and Mike Rogers, a former FBI agent and House Intelligence Committee chair who recently lost a Senate race in Michigan.
The selection appears to be driven primarily by loyalty to Trump and alignment with his vision to reform the FBI, which he has criticized as politically biased against him. The search results indicate that Trump is less concerned about traditional qualifications or Senate confirmation prospects, and more focused on choosing someone who will support his agenda for transforming the agency.
Analysis
Background
- The FBI Director serves a 10-year term
- Current Director Christopher Wray has faced criticism from Trump
- Trump has indicated plans for significant restructuring of the FBI and DOJ
Leading Candidates
Kash Patel
- Strong Trump loyalist
- Former national security official in Trump administration
- Backed by Steve Bannon and Trump allies
- No direct FBI experience
- Criticized by former FBI officials as potentially damaging to agency
Mike Rogers
- Former FBI special agent
- Chaired House Intelligence Committee
- More establishment credentials
- Recently lost Michigan Senate race
- Previously considered for FBI Director in 2017
Key Factors Influencing Selection
- Loyalty to Trump
- Trump prioritizing candidates aligned with his views
- Focus on willingness to reform FBI
- History of support for Trump's positions
- Qualifications vs. Political Alignment
- Traditional experience less emphasized
- Greater weight on political reliability
- Senate confirmation considerations secondary
- Reform Agenda
- Plans for major DOJ/FBI restructuring
- Desire for director who will support changes
- Focus on addressing perceived anti-conservative bias
- Recent Developments
- JD Vance confirmed ongoing interviews
- Trump transition team actively vetting candidates
- Increased criticism of current FBI leadership
Risks and Considerations
- Senate confirmation challenges
- Public and institutional pushback
- Impact on FBI morale and operations
- Political implications of choice
Prediction
Based on the available evidence, Kash Patel appears to be the most likely choice (60% probability), given Trump's emphasis on loyalty and desire for significant reform. Mike Rogers represents a more moderate alternative (30% probability), while other candidates account for the remaining 10% probability. This assessment has a confidence level of 7/10 given the clear signals from Trump's team but acknowledging the potential for changes before the final decision.
Trump FBI Director Selection
Kash Patel:60.0%
Mike Rogers:30.0%
Other Candidates:10.0%
Confidence: 7/10
Reasoning Score: 8/10
Sources
- https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/nov/19/trump-kash-patel-fbi-director
- https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/4998486-jd-vance-donald-trump-fbi-director-candidates/
- https://www.foxnews.com/politics/mike-rogers-consideration-fbi-chief-after-meeting-mar-a-lago-trump-transition-team-sources-say
- https://apnews.com/article/fbi-trump-vance-wray-ffc67d88a2ec403a28c26ab52482c046