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Will 2024 be better than 2023?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Ipsos Consumer Tracker's "Me Personally" measure on the "It was a (comparatively) really good year" chart for 2024 (ex: https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/americans-say-2023-was-good-year-and-think-2024-will-be-even-better) indicates that 2024 was a better year than 2023. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The yearly results for the Ipsos Consumer Tracker are usually published early in December of a given year. If Ipsos announces they will cease to release consumer tracker information, otherwise shuts down, or if the Consumer Tracker information for 2024 is not made available by January 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be the Ipsos Consumer Tracker.
Event Details
Total Volume: $10.1K
24h Volume: $133
Total Liquidity: $1.4K
Markets: 1
Event Ends: 12/31/2024
Event Analysis
Summary
The prediction market focuses on whether 2024 will be perceived as better than 2023 according to the Ipsos Consumer Tracker's "Me Personally" measure, with resolution in early 2025. Current market sentiment strongly favors "No" at 71.5%, reflecting ongoing concerns about economic conditions, political uncertainty, and declining happiness metrics in Western nations.
Recent data from the World Happiness Report 2024 and Ipsos surveys indicate declining satisfaction levels in the US and other Western countries, particularly among younger generations. While some positive indicators exist, such as improving retail satisfaction metrics and decreasing COVID-19 concerns, broader economic and social challenges persist that could negatively impact consumer sentiment through 2024.
Analysis
Economic and Social Context
Current Conditions
- US dropped out of top 20 happiest countries for first time since 2012
- Declining happiness among Americans under 30
- Mixed consumer sentiment with cautious spending patterns
- Ongoing concerns about inflation and economic stability
Consumer Sentiment Trends
- Retail satisfaction improving (ACSI data shows 3% increase)
- COVID-19 concerns at record lows (only 14% view as high threat)
- Growing focus on value beyond price points
- Generational divisions in life satisfaction metrics
Outcome Analysis
"Yes" Scenario (28.5% Current Probability)
Factors supporting improvement:
- Decreasing COVID-19 concerns
- Rising retail satisfaction metrics
- Potential economic stabilization
- Olympic Games potential boost to global mood
"No" Scenario (71.5% Current Probability)
Factors supporting decline:
- Declining happiness in Western nations
- Youth dissatisfaction trends
- Political uncertainty in election year
- Persistent economic challenges
Key Factors to Watch
- Economic Indicators
- Inflation trends
- Consumer spending patterns
- Employment statistics
- Political Events
- US election impact
- Global conflicts
- Policy changes
- Social Metrics
- Generational satisfaction gaps
- Community engagement levels
- Mental health indicators
- Consumer Behavior
- Retail satisfaction trends
- Spending confidence
- Value perception shifts
Recent Developments
- World Happiness Report 2024 showing concerning trends in Western nations
- Ipsos expanding measurement capabilities with YouTube integration
- Rising retail satisfaction despite economic pressures
- Declining COVID-19 concerns creating normalcy
Prediction
Based on comprehensive analysis of available data, I predict a 70% probability that 2024 will NOT be perceived as better than 2023 according to the Ipsos Consumer Tracker. The combination of political uncertainty, declining happiness metrics in key markets, and persistent economic challenges outweigh positive indicators from retail satisfaction and decreased pandemic concerns. While some improvement factors exist, they appear insufficient to overcome broader negative trends.
Will 2024 be better than 2023?
Yes:30.0%
No:70.0%
Confidence: 7/10
Reasoning Score: 8/10
Sources
- https://worldhappiness.report/ed/2024/happiness-of-the-younger-the-older-and-those-in-between/
- https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/post-holiday-covid-surge-barely-bothered-america
- https://theacsi.org/industries/retail/general-merchandise-retailers/
- https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/2024-us-presidential-election-outcome-highly-uncertain