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Will 2024 be the hottest year on record?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for 2024 shows an increase of 1.18°C or greater when it is released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An anomaly of 1.18°C or greater for 2024 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for 2023 and/or 2024 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2024" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2024 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2025, 11:59:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.

Event Details

Total Volume: $386.8K
24h Volume: $2.3K
Total Liquidity: $112.6K
Markets: 1
Event Ends: 3/1/2025

Event Analysis

Summary

The question of whether 2024 will be the hottest year on record has become increasingly relevant as global temperatures continue to rise. Based on comprehensive data from multiple climate monitoring organizations, 2023 has already set new temperature records, with global temperatures averaging 1.45°C above pre-industrial levels. This context, combined with an ongoing strong El Niño event expected to peak in early 2024, creates compelling conditions for potential record-breaking temperatures in 2024. The prediction market's resolution depends specifically on NASA's Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index showing an anomaly of 1.18°C or greater for 2024. Current scientific projections, including those from NOAA, WMO, and other leading climate institutions, suggest an extraordinarily high probability of 2024 exceeding this threshold, driven by both anthropogenic climate change and natural variability factors.

Analysis

Current Climate Context

  • 2023 has officially been declared the warmest year on record, with temperatures averaging 1.45°C ± 0.12°C above pre-industrial levels
  • Global ocean heat content has reached record highs
  • Current El Niño conditions are strong and expected to persist through early 2024

Analysis of Potential Outcomes

YES (2024 will be hottest year)

Factors supporting this outcome:

  • Strong ongoing El Niño conditions typically peak in warming effects the following year
  • Reduced aerosol forcing from decreased emissions
  • Long-term warming trend from greenhouse gas emissions
  • Multiple climate models project >90% chance of record temperatures
  • WMO indicates high probability of exceeding previous records

NO (2024 will not be hottest year)

Factors supporting this outcome:

  • Potential unexpected shift to La Niña conditions
  • Natural variability could temporarily suppress warming
  • Measurement uncertainties in temperature data
  • Possible volcanic activity affecting global temperatures

Key Factors to Watch

  1. El Niño Evolution
  • Current strength and duration
  • Potential transition timing to neutral or La Niña conditions
  1. Ocean Heat Content
  • Continued monitoring of ocean temperature anomalies
  • Impact on global atmospheric temperatures
  1. Climate Policy Implementation
  • Changes in aerosol emissions
  • Global greenhouse gas emission trends
  1. Natural Variability
  • Volcanic activity
  • Solar radiation patterns
  • Regional climate patterns

Recent Developments

  • NASA and NOAA confirm 2023 as warmest year on record
  • El Niño reached 2°C in Niño 3.4 region
  • Multiple agencies project 2024 temperatures to exceed 2023 records
  • Scientific consensus strengthening on likelihood of record temperatures

Prediction

Based on comprehensive analysis of current climate conditions, ongoing El Niño effects, and scientific projections, I assess a 95% probability that 2024 will be the hottest year on record. The combination of strong El Niño conditions, reduced aerosol forcing, and long-term warming trends creates highly favorable conditions for exceeding the 1.18°C threshold required for market resolution. While some uncertainty exists due to natural variability factors, the weight of evidence strongly supports a "Yes" outcome.

Will 2024 be the hottest year on record?

Yes:95.0%
No:5.0%
Confidence: 9/10
Reasoning Score: 9/10

Sources

Market Options

Will 2024 be the hottest year on record?

Yes
98.9%
No
1.1%
Liquidity: $112.6K
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