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Another Trump Cabinet nominee withdrawn before inauguration?

On November 21, 2024, Matt Gaetz announced that he would be withdrawing himself from consideration for the position of Attorney General after having previously been announced as Trump’s nominee. This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one additional individual nominated by Donald Trump for a cabinet-level position requiring Senate confirmation is withdrawn by January 19, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. A Cabinet position is defined as any of the heads of the 15 executive departments or a role formally designated as Cabinet-level by the President. Advisory roles will not qualify for this market. Any individual who Trump has announced an intention to nominate will be considered nominated. Similarly, announcements from the nominee or Trump or one of his representatives that the nominee will be withdrawn will qualify for this market. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Event Details

Total Volume: $54.1K
24h Volume: $1.8K
Total Liquidity: $9.1K
Markets: 1
Event Ends: 1/20/2025

Event Analysis

Summary

The prediction market centers on whether at least one additional Trump cabinet nominee will withdraw before January 19, 2025, following Matt Gaetz's withdrawal from Attorney General consideration. Recent reporting indicates Trump has nominated several controversial figures including Linda McMahon for Education Secretary, Howard Lutnick for Commerce Secretary, Sean Duffy for Transportation Secretary, and Mehmet Oz for CMS Administrator. The market's outcome will likely be influenced by the controversial nature of several nominees, potential Senate confirmation challenges, and Trump's unconventional approach to vetting nominees through private companies rather than traditional FBI background checks. Public polling shows significant disapproval of many nominees, while Senate Republicans have expressed private concerns about supporting certain controversial picks.

Analysis

Current Context

  • Trump has announced several major cabinet nominations:
    • Linda McMahon for Education Secretary
    • Howard Lutnick for Commerce Secretary
    • Sean Duffy for Transportation Secretary
    • Mehmet Oz for CMS Administrator
    • Robert F. Kennedy Jr. for HHS Secretary (reported)

Key Risk Factors for Withdrawals

  1. Confirmation Challenges
  • Senate Republicans expressing private concerns about controversial nominees
  • Polling shows majority disapproval for many picks
  • Bypassing traditional FBI vetting could surface issues later
  1. Controversial Backgrounds
  • Several nominees have controversial past statements
  • RFK Jr.'s anti-vaccine positions face significant opposition
  • Sean Duffy's past controversial comments on race issues
  • Oz faces scrutiny over medical claims and credentials
  1. Process Changes
  • Trump using private companies for vetting instead of FBI
  • Could miss critical issues that surface during confirmation
  • May lead to surprises that force withdrawals

Recent Developments

  • Matt Gaetz withdrew from AG consideration
  • Public polling shows no Trump nominee viewed positively by majority
  • Senate Republicans signaling scrutiny of controversial picks
  • Trump considering recess appointments to bypass Senate

Factors to Watch

  • Senate Republican public statements on nominees
  • Additional background information emerging during vetting
  • Nominee reactions to increased scrutiny
  • Trump's willingness to stand by controversial picks

Prediction

Given the multiple controversial nominees, bypassing of traditional vetting, and Senate Republican concerns, I assess a 65% probability that at least one additional Trump cabinet nominee will withdraw before January 19, 2025. Key risks center on RFK Jr., Sean Duffy, and Mehmet Oz due to their controversial backgrounds and statements.

Will another Trump cabinet nominee withdraw?

Yes:65.0%
No:35.0%
Confidence: 7/10
Reasoning Score: 8/10

Sources

Market Options

Another Trump Cabinet nominee withdrawn before inauguration?

Yes
46.5%
No
53.5%
Liquidity: $9.1K
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