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Will Assad remain President of Syria through 2024?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Bashar al-Assad remains the President of Syria without interruption from November 17, 2024 through December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be the CIA World Factbook page for Syria, currently available at https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/countries/syria/#government. A consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Event Details
Total Volume: $31.1K
24h Volume: $18.4K
Total Liquidity: $16.2K
Markets: 1
Event Ends: 12/31/2024
Event Analysis
Summary
The question of whether Bashar al-Assad will remain President of Syria through 2024 centers on the stability of his authoritarian regime amid regional tensions and domestic challenges. Assad has maintained power through a brutal civil war since 2011, backed by Russian and Iranian support, while facing international isolation and continued internal opposition.
Based on the available evidence, Assad's grip on power appears stable in the near term, despite ongoing challenges. The July 2024 parliamentary elections are expected to reinforce his control, with the Ba'ath Party maintaining dominance through restrictive electoral practices. While there are pockets of resistance and international pressure, no immediate threats appear capable of displacing him before the end of 2024.
Analysis
Political Landscape
Current Situation
- Assad maintains firm control over most of Syria through military force and political repression
- Freedom House describes severe human rights abuses and authoritarian control
- Parliamentary elections scheduled for July 15, 2024 are expected to be neither free nor fair
- Recent reports indicate ballot box confiscation and violent responses to protesters
Regional Dynamics
- Continued support from Russia and Iran provides crucial external backing
- Regional instability, including Israel-Hamas conflict, may actually strengthen Assad's position
- Syria largely isolated internationally but maintains key strategic relationships
Key Factors to Watch
- External Support
- Russian military and diplomatic backing remains strong
- Iranian succession concerns could affect support levels
- International sanctions continue but haven't threatened regime stability
- Internal Opposition
- Protests in Sweida and other regions show continued resistance
- Opposition remains fragmented and lacks external support
- Economic conditions creating public dissatisfaction
- Electoral Process
- July 2024 parliamentary elections will be closely watched
- Ba'ath Party expected to maintain complete control
- No credible opposition candidates allowed to participate
Recent Developments
- Assad skipped COP28 conference, sending PM instead
- Continues making public appearances and maintaining control
- No signs of serious threats to his presidency emerging
Risk Assessment
Factors Supporting Stability
- Entrenched power structure
- Loyal military and security apparatus
- International backing from Russia and Iran
- Weakened and divided opposition
Potential Risks
- Economic deterioration
- Regional conflict spillover
- Popular unrest due to poor conditions
- Possible shifts in external support
Prediction
Based on comprehensive analysis, I assess a 95% probability that Assad will remain President of Syria through 2024. The combination of entrenched power, external support, and lack of organized opposition makes his removal from power highly unlikely in this timeframe. While risks exist, none appear sufficient to overcome the extensive systems of control maintaining his presidency.
Will Assad remain President of Syria through 2024?
Yes:95.0%
No:5.0%
Confidence: 8/10
Reasoning Score: 7/10