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Will Biden appoint more judges than Trump?
As of November 11, President Joe Biden has appointed and the Senate has confirmed 213 Article III federal judges. Donald Trump was able to successfully appoint 234 Judges. (see: https://www.cnn.com/2024/11/11/politics/biden-senate-democrats-judicial-nominees/index.html). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Biden administration gets 235 or more Article III federal judges confirmed by January 19, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Event Details
Total Volume: $16.8K
24h Volume: $35
Total Liquidity: $686
Markets: 1
Event Ends: 1/19/2025
Event Analysis
Summary
The prediction market focuses on whether President Biden will surpass Donald Trump's total of 234 confirmed federal judges by January 19, 2024. As of current data, Biden has confirmed 213 judges, requiring 22 more confirmations in a limited timeframe to exceed Trump's total.
The situation presents a challenging timeline, with several key factors at play. The Senate's schedule, existing judicial vacancies, and the confirmation process's political dynamics all impact the likelihood of reaching this threshold. Recent nominations and confirmation patterns, combined with the approaching deadline, suggest significant hurdles to confirming the required number of judges in time.
Analysis
Current Situation
Status of Judicial Appointments
- Biden confirmed judges: 213
- Trump's total: 234
- Gap to surpass: 22 judges
- Deadline: January 19, 2024
Senate Schedule and Process
- Senate returns April 8 with scheduled vote on Susan Bazis nomination
- Limited legislative days remaining before deadline
- Pro forma sessions scheduled through early April
- Confirmation process typically requires:
- Judiciary Committee hearings
- Committee votes
- Full Senate floor consideration
Recent Developments
- 44th round of nominations announced January 10, 2024
- Six new district court nominees added
- Current nomination pipeline includes multiple candidates at various stages
Key Factors Influencing Outcome
Positive Factors
- Democratic Senate majority
- Demonstrated ability to confirm judges quickly when prioritized
- Multiple nominees already in pipeline
- Some history of bipartisan support for certain nominees
Challenging Factors
- Limited time remaining
- Senate schedule constraints
- Political opposition potential
- Complex confirmation process
- Home-state senator courtesy requirements
Recent Trends and Momentum
- Confirmation pace has slowed compared to earlier periods
- Diversity focus remains priority but may extend vetting time
- Bipartisan support varies by nominee
- Senate capacity to process nominations faces practical limits
Prediction
Based on the available evidence, I predict Biden will NOT surpass Trump's total of 234 judges by January 19, 2024. The combination of limited time, Senate scheduling constraints, and the number of required confirmations (22) makes this outcome unlikely. I assess a 25% probability of reaching the target and a 75% probability of falling short.
Will Biden appoint more judges than Trump?
Yes:25.0%
No:75.0%
Confidence: 8/10
Reasoning Score: 9/10
Sources
- https://www.senate.gov/legislative/2024_schedule.htm
- https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/presidential-actions/2024/01/10/president-biden-names-forty-fourth-round-of-judicial-nominees/
- https://civilrights.org/resource/lifetime-judges-confirmed-during-the-biden-administration-through-2023/
- https://apnews.com/article/biden-judges-trump-senate-200-confirmed-63b764d071d9c084b6669eabab527240