OddsChad
← Back to Events

Will Biden finish his term?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Joe Biden successfully finishes his term as President of the United States of America without any interruptions. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market will not resolve "Yes" until the presidency is successfully transferred from Biden to another person at the completion of his term on January 20, 2025, or until Biden is sworn into the presidency again on that date. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the US federal government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Event Details

Total Volume: $40.7M
24h Volume: $447.4K
Total Liquidity: $665.5K
Markets: 1
Event Ends: 1/20/2025

Event Analysis

Summary

The question of whether President Biden will finish his term hinges primarily on two key factors: his health status and the outcome of the 2024 presidential election. Recent medical examinations have found Biden "fit for duty" with no new health concerns, though his age (81) continues to draw scrutiny. The electoral landscape shows a tight race with Trump, with polling averages showing the candidates within a few percentage points of each other. The market currently shows strong confidence (92.5%) that Biden will complete his term, which reflects both the positive health assessments and the institutional stability of the presidency. However, there are several risk factors to consider, including the potential impact of ongoing legal proceedings against Trump, Biden's approval ratings hovering around 42%, and the broader political environment leading into the 2024 election.

Analysis

Health Assessment

  • Recent medical examination (February 2024) found Biden "healthy" and "vigorous"
  • Being treated for:
    • Atrial fibrillation (managed with blood thinner)
    • Sleep apnea (using CPAP machine)
    • Non-melanoma skin cancers (previously removed)
  • No evidence of serious neurological concerns
  • Regular exercise routine (5 days/week)

Electoral Landscape

Current Polling

  • Biden approval rating: 42.7% average
  • Head-to-head polls with Trump show tight race
  • Third-party candidates could impact electoral math
  • Key battleground states remain competitive

Risk Factors

  1. Age-Related Concerns

    • Public polls show 75% concerned about Biden's age
    • Cognitive ability regularly questioned by opponents
    • Stiffened gait noted in medical reports

  2. Political Environment

    • Low approval ratings (42.7%)
    • Economic concerns despite positive indicators
    • Immigration and crime remain contentious issues

  3. Legal/Constitutional Risks

    • Trump legal proceedings extending into 2025
    • Potential political instability around election
    • Constitutional challenges if election disputed

Key Factors to Watch

  1. Health Updates

    • Regular medical assessments
    • Public appearances and performance
    • Cognitive function demonstrations

  2. Electoral Indicators

    • Polling trends in battleground states
    • Campaign performance
    • Debate performances

  3. External Events

    • Economic conditions
    • International crises
    • Trump legal proceedings outcomes

Recent Developments

  • February 2024 medical exam showed stable health
  • Campaign actively addressing age concerns
  • Strong legislative achievements despite challenges
  • Increasing focus on contrast with Trump

Prediction

Based on current evidence, Biden is likely to complete his term, with a 90% probability. The main risk factors are age-related health issues (5% risk) and potential election-related disruptions (5% risk). The market price of 92.5% appears slightly high but generally accurate given the available information.

Will Biden finish his term?

Yes:90.0%
No:10.0%
Confidence: 8/10
Reasoning Score: 9/10

Sources

Market Options

Will Biden finish his term?

Yes
91.5%
No
8.5%
Liquidity: $665.5K
Trade →