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Will Biden pardon Julian Assange?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Julian Assange receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve, for any crime of which he is convicted, by Joseph Biden, before the time the next presidential inauguration starts. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes", the pardon, commutation, or reprieve must be issued by Joseph Biden within his first presidential term. If it becomes impossible for Joseph Biden issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Event Details

Total Volume: $13.3K
24h Volume: $21
Total Liquidity: $7.7K
Markets: 1
Event Ends: 1/20/2025

Event Analysis

Summary

Julian Assange, founder of WikiLeaks, faces potential extradition to the US on espionage charges, with a final UK appeal scheduled for February 2024. The question of whether President Biden will pardon him before the next presidential inauguration involves complex political, diplomatic, and legal considerations. Recent developments show increasing bipartisan pressure on Biden to end Assange's prosecution, including a letter from 16 US lawmakers and advocacy from Australian Prime Minister Albanese. However, Biden faces significant political risks in an election year, and his administration has shown no public indication of considering a pardon.

Analysis

Current Situation

Legal Status

  • Assange faces 18 charges under the Espionage Act
  • Final UK appeal scheduled for February 20-21, 2024
  • Could face up to 175 years in prison if convicted in US

Political Environment

  • Growing bipartisan support for ending prosecution
  • International pressure, especially from Australia
  • Biden administration maintains DOJ stance on extradition

Analysis of Outcomes

Pardon Scenario (3.9% Current Market Probability)

Factors supporting:

  • Increasing bipartisan congressional pressure
  • International diplomatic considerations
  • Press freedom concerns raised by advocacy groups

Factors against:

  • Election year political risks
  • Biden administration's consistent position
  • DOJ's continued pursuit of prosecution

No Pardon Scenario (96.1% Current Market Probability)

Supporting evidence:

  • No signals from Biden administration
  • Historical precedent of maintaining prosecution
  • Political costs in election year
  • Limited time window before inauguration

Key Factors to Watch

Short-term Catalysts

  • February 2024 UK appeal outcome
  • Further congressional or diplomatic pressure
  • Changes in public sentiment during election campaign

Risk Factors

  • Potential deterioration of Assange's health
  • Australian diplomatic negotiations
  • US election dynamics

Recent Developments

  • Bipartisan letter from 16 US lawmakers
  • Council of Europe warning about press freedom
  • Australian PM's direct appeal to Biden
  • Final UK appeal date set

Prediction

Based on the available evidence, I assess a 95% probability that Biden will not pardon Assange before the next inauguration. While there is growing pressure for action, the political risks during an election year and the administration's consistent position make a pardon highly unlikely. The 5% probability of a pardon accounts for potential dramatic developments following the February UK appeal or unexpected diplomatic breakthroughs.

Will Biden pardon Julian Assange?

Yes:5.0%
No:95.0%
Confidence: 8/10
Reasoning Score: 9/10

Sources

Market Options

Will Biden pardon Julian Assange?

Yes
3.6%
No
96.4%
Liquidity: $7.7K
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