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Will Biden pardon Ross Ulbricht?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if founder of Silk Road Ross William Ulbricht, aka Dread Pirate Roberts, receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve, for any crime of which he is convicted, by Joe Biden, before the time the next presidential inauguration starts. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes", the pardon, commutation, or reprieve must be issued by Joseph Biden within his first presidential term. If it becomes impossible for Joseph Biden to issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Event Details
Total Volume: $25.8K
24h Volume: $218
Total Liquidity: $15.0K
Markets: 1
Event Ends: 1/20/2025
Event Analysis
Summary
The prediction market focuses on whether President Joe Biden will pardon Ross Ulbricht, the founder of the Silk Road dark web marketplace, before the next presidential inauguration. Ulbricht is currently serving a double life sentence plus 40 years for non-violent charges related to operating the Silk Road platform, which facilitated anonymous transactions including illegal drug sales.
The market shows strong conviction (96.9%) that Biden will not pardon Ulbricht, reflecting several key factors: Biden's limited use of pardons for drug-related offenses, the high-profile nature of Ulbricht's case, and the political risks associated with pardoning someone connected to large-scale drug trafficking. While there is growing advocacy for Ulbricht's release and some political figures have expressed support, the evidence suggests Biden is unlikely to take such action during his remaining time in office.
Analysis
Current Political Context
- Biden administration has focused pardons primarily on low-level marijuana offenses and non-violent drug crimes
- Recent December 2023 clemency actions showed continued focus on marijuana-related cases and individuals serving disproportionate sentences
- Administration has emphasized equal justice and criminal justice reform, but within narrow parameters
Analysis of Outcomes
"Yes" Outcome (3.1%)
Factors supporting a pardon:
- Growing advocacy movement through FreeRoss DAO and crypto community
- Some political figures (Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Vivek Ramaswamy) expressing support
- Biden's commitment to criminal justice reform
- Recent improvements to clemency process at DOJ
Challenges:
- Ulbricht's case involves significant drug trafficking, not just personal use
- High political risk given controversial nature of Silk Road
- No indication from Biden administration of interest in case
- Limited time remaining before next inauguration
"No" Outcome (96.9%)
Supporting evidence:
- Biden's pattern of pardons focuses on marijuana possession
- Administration facing increased regulatory scrutiny of crypto
- Political climate unfavorable for high-profile drug-related pardons
- Lack of public statements or signals from administration
- Time constraints as election approaches
Key Factors to Watch
- Additional clemency announcements from Biden administration
- Changes in public sentiment toward Ulbricht's case
- Developments in crypto regulation and enforcement
- Political pressure from advocacy groups
- Biden's broader criminal justice initiatives
Recent Developments
- December 2023: Biden announced pardons for marijuana possession
- DOJ improvements to clemency process announced
- Ongoing crypto industry regulatory challenges
- No mention of Ulbricht in recent pardon considerations
Prediction
I assess with high confidence (8/10) that Biden will not pardon Ross Ulbricht before the next presidential inauguration. The combination of political risk, administration priorities, and time constraints makes a pardon highly unlikely. While advocacy efforts continue, there are no significant indicators that the administration is considering this action. The current market price of 96.9% for "No" appears well-calibrated to the available evidence.
Will Biden pardon Ross Ulbricht?
Yes:3.0%
No:97.0%
Confidence: 8/10
Reasoning Score: 9/10
Sources
- https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/fact-sheet-justice-department-improvements-clemency-process
- https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2023/12/22/statement-from-president-joe-biden-on-clemency-actions/
- https://bitcoinmagazine.com/culture/next-us-president-pardon-bitcoin-pioneer-ross-ulbricht
- https://web.archive.org/web/20190830213401/https://joebiden.com/justice/
- https://join.freerossdao.com/