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Will Biden pardon SBF?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Samuel Bankman-Fried (SBF) receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve, for any crime of which he is convicted, by Joseph Biden, before the time the next presidential inauguration starts. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes", the pardon, commutation, or reprieve must be issued by Joseph Biden within his first presidential term. If it becomes impossible fo Joseph Biden issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Event Details

Total Volume: $486.6K
24h Volume: $5
Total Liquidity: $39.4K
Markets: 1
Event Ends: 1/20/2025

Event Analysis

Summary

The prediction market focuses on whether President Biden will pardon Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF), the former CEO of FTX who was recently convicted on seven criminal charges related to fraud and conspiracy. With prosecutors recommending a 40-50 year sentence and SBF's sentencing scheduled for March 28, 2024, the window for a potential pardon before the next presidential inauguration is narrowing. Given Biden's pattern of pardons focusing primarily on drug offenses and historical injustices (like LGBTQI+ service members), combined with the political sensitivity around high-profile financial crimes and Biden's own family's legal scrutiny, the likelihood of a pardon for SBF appears extremely low. The current market price of 4.6% for "Yes" may even be overvalued given these considerations.

Analysis

Economic and Political Context

  • SBF's conviction comes amid heightened scrutiny of cryptocurrency markets and financial fraud
  • Biden administration has prioritized accountability in financial markets
  • Political environment heading into 2024 election makes controversial pardons unlikely

Analysis of Potential Outcomes

Yes (Current Price: 4.6%)

  • Supporting Factors:

    • Biden has shown willingness to use pardon power
    • Some public figures (like G Lock) calling for pardon
    • SBF was major Democratic donor pre-arrest

  • Arguments Against:

    • Biden's pardons focused on drug offenses and historical injustices
    • Political cost would be extremely high
    • Ongoing scrutiny of Hunter Biden makes controversial pardons unlikely
    • No indication of pardon consideration from White House

No (Current Price: 95.4%)

  • Supporting Factors:

    • Severity of SBF's crimes and prosecutor recommendations
    • Biden's focus on financial accountability
    • Political risk in election year
    • Pattern of Biden pardons targeting specific categories
    • Public sentiment against financial fraud

  • Arguments Against:

    • Some uncertainty until inauguration
    • Potential unknown political factors

Key Factors to Watch

  1. Sentencing outcome (March 28, 2024)
  2. Biden's other pardon actions
  3. Public statements from administration
  4. Political developments in election campaign

Recent Developments

  • Prosecutors recommended 40-50 year sentence
  • No indication from White House of pardon consideration
  • Biden's recent pardons focused on drug offenses and historical cases

Prediction

I predict with high confidence (9/10) that Biden will NOT pardon SBF before the next presidential inauguration. The combination of political risk, Biden's pardon pattern, and the severity of SBF's crimes makes a pardon extremely unlikely. The current market price of 95.4% for "No" appears well-calibrated, possibly even slightly low.

Will Biden pardon SBF?

Yes:2.0%
No:98.0%
Confidence: 9/10
Reasoning Score: 8/10

Sources

Market Options

Will Biden pardon SBF?

Yes
4.5%
No
95.5%
Liquidity: $39.4K
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