The question of whether President Biden will pardon former President Trump before the next presidential inauguration represents a complex intersection of legal, political, and historical precedent. The current market shows strong conviction (95.8%) that Biden will not issue such a pardon, reflecting both the intense political polarization and the ongoing nature of Trump's multiple legal challenges. The context is particularly significant given Trump's unprecedented position as a former president facing multiple criminal indictments while simultaneously running as the leading Republican candidate for 2024. Historical precedents like Ford's pardon of Nixon provide some framework for analysis, but the current situation presents unique challenges given the nature and scope of Trump's legal issues, the political climate, and Biden's position as both incumbent president and potential 2024 opponent.

Analysis of Biden-Trump Pardon Probability

Historical Context

• Only one previous president (Ford) has pardoned a former president (Nixon)
• Ford's pardon of Nixon was highly controversial and likely contributed to his subsequent electoral defeat
• Recent presidential pardons have typically focused on non-violent offenders and cases of perceived injustice

Current Legal Landscape

Trump's Legal Challenges

• 91 felony counts across multiple jurisdictions
• Mix of federal and state charges (presidential pardon only applies to federal)
• Multiple trials scheduled throughout 2024
• Ongoing gag order disputes and concerns about witness intimidation

Biden's Recent Pardon Actions

• Has focused on drug-related offenses and criminal justice reform
• More active use of clemency power than recent predecessors
• Emphasis on equal justice under law and addressing systemic inequities

Key Factors Influencing Outcome

Arguments Against Pardon (95.8% Current Market)

1. Political Backlash

   • Would alienate Democratic base
   • Could be seen as undermining rule of law
   • Might energize Trump's campaign

2. Legal Complexity

   • Multiple ongoing cases
   • State charges cannot be pardoned
   • Unprecedented situation with active candidate

3. Timing Issues

   • Trials scheduled throughout 2024
   • Political sensitivity during campaign
   • Limited window before inauguration

Arguments For Pardon (4.3% Current Market)

1. National Unity

   • Could reduce political tensions
   • Historical precedent (Ford-Nixon)
   • Potential healing gesture

2. Strategic Considerations

   • Might defuse Trump's political narrative
   • Could demonstrate magnanimity
   • Potential to reset political discourse

Recent Developments

• Increased threats to judges and court staff in Trump cases
• Multiple ongoing legal challenges to Trump's ballot eligibility
• Biden's active use of pardon power for other cases

Market Recommendations

1. Monitor key events:

   • Trial outcomes and scheduling
   • Biden public statements about Trump cases
   • Political polling trends

2. Watch for signals:

   • Changes in DOJ approach to cases
   • Biden administration messaging
   • Congressional Democrat positions