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Will Biden resign before inauguration?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Joe Biden announces has resigned or will resign the presidency by January 19, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If it becomes impossible for Joe Biden to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g. due to his removal from office by other means, etc), this market will immediately resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary Biden announce that he has or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Event Details

Total Volume: $127.2K
24h Volume: $496
Total Liquidity: $68.0K
Markets: 1
Event Ends: 1/19/2025

Event Analysis

Summary

The prediction market centers on whether President Joe Biden will announce his resignation before January 19, 2024. This question has gained attention following recent scrutiny of Biden's age, health, and cognitive abilities, particularly after special counsel Robert Hur's report and Biden's annual physical examination. Based on comprehensive analysis of recent developments and official statements, there appears to be very low probability of Biden resigning before inauguration. While concerns about his age and cognitive abilities persist among voters, his recent medical examination declared him "fit for duty" and he remains actively engaged in campaign activities for 2024. His physician Dr. Kevin O'Connor has reported no new health concerns, and Biden continues to maintain an active schedule including regular exercise five times per week.

Analysis

Political Context

  • Biden is actively campaigning for reelection in 2024
  • Recent polls show declining Democratic support for reelection bid (37% down from 52%)
  • Special counsel Hur's report raised questions about cognitive abilities
  • Republicans have initiated impeachment inquiry related to Hunter Biden

Health Assessment

  • Recent physical exam by Dr. O'Connor declared Biden "fit for duty"
  • No new major health concerns identified
  • Maintains active exercise routine 5x weekly
  • Managing existing conditions (atrial fibrillation, sleep apnea) effectively
  • No signs of serious neurological conditions

Key Factors Influencing Probability

Factors Decreasing Resignation Likelihood:

  • Active campaign engagement
  • Positive health assessments
  • No indication of resignation plans
  • Democratic party stability concerns
  • Lack of clear succession plan

Factors Potentially Increasing Resignation Likelihood:

  • Age concerns (81 years old)
  • Declining voter confidence
  • Republican pressure through impeachment inquiry
  • Cognitive ability questions

Recent Developments

  • Physical examination results released showing stable health
  • Active participation in campaign events
  • No signals from administration about potential resignation
  • Continued policy initiatives and engagement

Market Implications

Current market prices (96% No, 4% Yes) appear well-aligned with available evidence. The high probability of "No" reflects:

  • Consistent health reports
  • Active campaign participation
  • Lack of resignation signals
  • Political stability requirements

Prediction

Based on comprehensive analysis of recent evidence, I predict with high confidence (9/10) that Biden will not resign before inauguration. While concerns about age and cognitive ability persist, there are no concrete indicators suggesting resignation plans. The current market price of 96% for "No" appears appropriate given available information.

Will Biden resign before inauguration?

Yes:4.0%
No:96.0%
Confidence: 9/10
Reasoning Score: 8/10

Sources

Market Options

Will Biden resign before inauguration?

Yes
4.2%
No
95.9%
Liquidity: $68.0K
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