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Will Biden resign in 2024?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Joe Biden announces has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If it becomes impossible for Joe Biden to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g. due to his removal from office by other means, etc), this market will immediately resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary Biden announce that he has or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Event Details

Total Volume: $416.6K
24h Volume: $3.0K
Total Liquidity: $37.9K
Markets: 1
Event Ends: 12/31/2024

Event Analysis

Summary

The question of whether President Biden will resign in 2024 has gained attention amid discussions about his age, political challenges, and the upcoming presidential election. The search results reveal extensive coverage of Biden's campaign strategy, internal Democratic Party dynamics, and public perception concerns, particularly regarding his age and effectiveness as a leader. While some articles discuss speculation about Biden's future and Democratic Party positioning for 2028, there is no concrete evidence suggesting an imminent resignation. Biden's team has demonstrated active campaign preparation and strategic positioning against Trump for 2024, indicating his intention to complete his term and seek reelection. The current market prices (97.0% No, 2.9% Yes) appear to reflect this reality accurately.

Analysis

Current Political Context

  • Biden is actively campaigning for reelection in 2024
  • Campaign infrastructure is being built in key battleground states
  • Strong financial resources and party support are in place
  • Focus on contrasting with Trump and defending democracy

Analysis of Potential Outcomes

Scenario 1: Resignation (2.9% probability)

Potential triggers:

  • Severe health deterioration
  • Major political crisis
  • Family pressure
  • Overwhelming party opposition

Scenario 2: No Resignation (97.0% probability)

Supporting factors:

  • Active campaign preparation
  • Strong party infrastructure
  • No indication of health crisis
  • Clear messaging about completing term
  • Commitment to opposing Trump

Key Factors to Watch

Health and Age Considerations

  • Biden's current health appears stable
  • Age remains a public concern but not debilitating
  • Regular medical updates and public appearances

Political Environment

  • Democratic Party unity
  • Poll numbers and public perception
  • Trump's legal challenges
  • International crises

Campaign Progress

  • Fundraising success
  • Coalition building
  • Debate performance
  • Primary results

Recent Developments

  • Continued campaign infrastructure building
  • Strong fundraising with Obama and Clinton support
  • Focus on key policy achievements
  • Active opposition to Trump's campaign

Prediction

Based on the available evidence, I predict with high confidence that President Biden will not resign in 2024. The extensive campaign preparation, strong party support, and absence of any concrete indicators suggesting resignation make the current market price of 97.0% for "No" appear accurate. The 2.9% probability for "Yes" appropriately accounts for unforeseen circumstances but may even be slightly high given the evidence.

Will Biden resign in 2024?

Yes:2.0%
No:98.0%
Confidence: 9/10
Reasoning Score: 8/10

Sources

Market Options

Will Biden resign in 2024?

Yes
2.9%
No
97.2%
Liquidity: $37.9K
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