The prediction market focuses on whether Bitcoin will first reach $90,000 or $100,000 between November 25, 2024 and December 31, 2024. This timeframe comes after several major catalysts for Bitcoin in 2024, including the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs, the April 2024 halving event, and potential Federal Reserve rate cuts. Based on the available research, there is strong bullish sentiment for Bitcoin heading into late 2024, driven by institutional adoption through ETFs, supply reduction from the halving, and an expected loosening of monetary policy. Multiple analysts predict Bitcoin reaching $100,000 or higher in 2024, though significant volatility remains likely. The timing of the market window after these major events suggests increased probability of reaching $100,000 first, assuming the bullish catalysts play out as expected.

Economic Background

Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy

• Multiple rate cuts expected in 2024 starting around March
• Looser monetary policy typically increases appetite for risk assets like Bitcoin
• Improved liquidity conditions could drive institutional investment

Market Structure

• Spot Bitcoin ETF approvals in early 2024 create new institutional access
• Bitcoin halving in April 2024 reduces new supply
• Growing institutional acceptance with fair value accounting adoption

Outcome Analysis

Reaching $100k First (60% probability)

• Strong institutional demand via ETFs could drive sustained rally
• Historical post-halving price increases support upward momentum
• Multiple analysts project $100k+ targets (Standard Chartered, CoinFund, others)
• Reduced supply from halving combined with ETF demand creates favorable dynamics

Reaching $90k First (25% probability)

• Market could experience sharp corrections during volatile moves higher
• Profit taking after major rallies could trigger pullbacks
• Economic uncertainty or regulatory issues could cause temporary drops

Neither Price Reached (15% probability)

• Price could stabilize in lower range if catalysts underwhelm
• Global economic weakness could limit upside
• Market maturity may reduce historical volatility patterns

Key Factors to Watch

1. ETF Fund Flows

• Track institutional adoption rates
• Monitor total AUM growth

2. Economic Data

• Inflation trends
• Fed policy decisions
• GDP growth

3. Technical Levels

• Support/resistance areas
• Trading volume
• Market sentiment indicators

4. Regulatory Developments

• Additional ETF approvals
• Global regulatory changes
• Institutional framework evolution