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Will Daniel Jones be signed during NFL regular season?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Daniel Jones signs a contract with an NFL team for either an active roster or practice squad position by January 4, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Event Details
Total Volume: $20.7K
24h Volume: $0
Total Liquidity: $13.2K
Markets: 1
Event Ends: 1/4/2025
Event Analysis
Summary
Daniel Jones, recently released by the New York Giants, is currently recovering from ACL surgery and seeking a new NFL team. The market aims to predict whether he will be signed to an active roster or practice squad during the 2024 NFL regular season before January 4, 2025.
The situation is complex, involving multiple factors including Jones' injury recovery timeline, the quarterback needs of various NFL teams, and the broader context of free agency and draft dynamics. Recent reporting suggests several teams including the Ravens, 49ers, and Raiders have shown potential interest, though his injury status creates significant uncertainty.
Analysis
Current Situation
- Daniel Jones was released by the Giants after a disappointing season cut short by ACL injury
- Currently rehabbing from ACL surgery
- Several teams reported to have potential interest, including Ravens, 49ers, and Raiders
Team Landscape
Teams Potentially Seeking QBs:
- San Francisco 49ers (given Purdy's shoulder injury)
- Baltimore Ravens (seeking backup depth)
- Las Vegas Raiders (potential bridge starter)
- Minnesota Vikings (playoff contender seeking depth)
Market Dynamics:
- NFL salary cap increased to $255.4M for 2024
- Active free agency period with multiple QB movements
- Teams also evaluating 2024 draft class for QB needs
Key Factors to Watch
- Injury Recovery
- Timeline for return from ACL surgery
- Performance indicators during rehabilitation
- Medical clearance status
- Team Situations
- Injuries to current starting QBs
- Draft decisions by QB-needy teams
- Training camp and preseason performance of other QBs
- Market Timing
- Free agency period starting March 13
- Training camp competitions
- In-season injuries creating opportunities
Recent Developments
- Giants focusing on draft prospects for QB position
- Multiple teams expressing preliminary interest
- Positive initial reports on surgery recovery
Prediction
Given the available information, Daniel Jones has a moderate-to-low probability (approximately 35%) of being signed during the 2024 NFL regular season. The combination of his injury recovery timeline, the availability of other quarterback options, and teams' likely preference for younger draft prospects reduces his chances. However, the potential for in-season injuries and his experience could create opportunities, particularly later in the season.
Will Daniel Jones be signed during the NFL regular season?
Yes:35.0%
No:65.0%
Confidence: 7/10
Reasoning Score: 8/10
Sources
- https://www.nfl.com/news/daniel-jones-expected-to-quickly-sign-with-new-team-after-clearing-waivers-next-week
- https://sports.yahoo.com/former-giants-quarterback-daniel-jones-143236757.html
- https://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2023/11/6/23949009/daniel-jones-injury-contract-giants-nfl-draft
- https://www.giants.com/news/nfl-salary-cap-2024-free-agency-draft-saquon-barkley-xavier-mckinney-daniel-jones-contract