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Derivatives_Ape/Prometheus arrested this year?
ZKasino operators Derivatives_Ape or XBT_Prometheus are rumored to be in legal hot water following controversy about ZKasino. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any of the individuals behind https://x.com/XBT_Prometheus or https://x.com/Derivatives_Ape/ are arrested between April 19, 2024, 12:00 PM ET and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. However, official information from the government involved in any action against either individual and information from the individuals' legal representatives will also be used.
Event Details
Total Volume: $67.3K
24h Volume: $281
Total Liquidity: $1.3K
Markets: 1
Event Ends: 12/31/2024
Event Analysis
Summary
The prediction market concerns the potential arrest of two individuals associated with ZKasino, a blockchain gambling platform that has come under regulatory scrutiny. Recent developments include the April 2024 arrest of a 26-year-old suspect by Dutch authorities (FIOD) in connection with the ZKasino case, where approximately $12.2 million in assets were seized.
The case highlights increasing regulatory enforcement against crypto gambling platforms, with authorities showing willingness to pursue international investigations and arrests. The recent arrest and ongoing investigation suggests potential for further legal actions against other individuals connected to ZKasino's operations, though specific evidence linking Derivatives_Ape or XBT_Prometheus remains limited.
Analysis
Economic and Regulatory Context
- Global crackdown on crypto-related financial crimes intensifying in 2024
- Increased coordination between international law enforcement agencies
- Dutch FIOD leading investigation with support from Binance's compliance team
- Growing regulatory scrutiny of crypto gambling platforms worldwide
Analysis of Potential Outcomes
Yes (Arrest Occurs) - 35% Probability
Factors Supporting:
- Recent arrest demonstrates active investigation
- FIOD indicated more arrests may follow
- $30M+ in victim losses creates pressure for further action
- International cooperation framework established
- Evidence of sophisticated "rug pull" scheme
No (No Arrest) - 65% Probability
Factors Supporting:
- Limited time remaining in 2024 (1 month)
- No public evidence directly linking targets
- International investigations often move slowly
- Possible jurisdiction/extradition challenges
- Targets may be in non-cooperative jurisdictions
Key Factors to Watch
- Further FIOD announcements
- Cooperation from initial arrested suspect
- Additional victim reports or evidence
- Movement of associated crypto assets
- Public statements by targets
Recent Developments
- April 29, 2024: Initial arrest by FIOD
- Asset seizure of €11.4M
- Binance cooperation confirmed
- Investigation expanded internationally
- Initial suspect detention extended
Prediction
Based on available evidence, I assess a 35% probability of arrest occurring by year-end 2024, higher than the market's current 25% estimate. While the recent arrest and ongoing investigation provide a foundation for further action, time constraints and jurisdictional challenges make arrest less likely than no arrest in the remaining timeframe. Confidence level is moderate (6/10) given mixed signals and limited direct evidence.
Derivatives_Ape/Prometheus arrested this year?
Yes:35.0%
No:65.0%
Confidence: 6/10
Reasoning Score: 7/10