← Back to Events
Will Elon Musk buy MSNBC?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reporting confirms that Elon Musk, either personally or through an entity controlled by him, enters into an agreement to acquire MSNBC by March 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An announcement by Elon Musk, MSNBC, or the acquiring entity will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the acquisition or launch is ultimately completed. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from Elon Musk and/or MSNBC, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Event Details
Total Volume: $945.2K
24h Volume: $68.4K
Total Liquidity: $99.3K
Markets: 1
Event Ends: 3/31/2025
Event Analysis
Summary
The prediction market centers on whether Elon Musk will acquire MSNBC by March 31, 2025. Recent speculation was sparked by Musk's public criticism of MSNBC and joking comments about buying the network. However, the situation is complicated by Comcast's planned restructuring of its cable assets into "SpinCo" and apparent reluctance to sell.
The search results reveal no credible reporting of actual negotiations or serious intent from Musk to acquire MSNBC. While Musk has a history of using social media to signal business moves, his comments about MSNBC appear more focused on criticism and humor rather than genuine acquisition interest. Additionally, Comcast's strategic plans for MSNBC and regulatory hurdles present significant obstacles to any potential deal.
Analysis
Current Situation
- MSNBC is currently owned by Comcast/NBCUniversal
- Comcast is planning to spin off cable channels into "SpinCo"
- Network faces declining subscribers (projected 10.5% loss by end of 2025)
- Musk has publicly criticized MSNBC but shown no serious acquisition intent
Key Factors Affecting Likelihood
Barriers to Acquisition
- Comcast shows no interest in selling MSNBC
- SpinCo restructuring complicates any potential sale
- Tax implications require ~2 year waiting period after spinoff
- Regulatory hurdles for media ownership concentration
- Significant financial commitment required
Musk's Position
- Public statements appear more focused on criticism than acquisition
- Currently managing multiple other companies (X, Tesla, SpaceX)
- Recent controversies with advertisers may complicate media acquisitions
- No credible reporting of serious interest or negotiations
Market Context
- Broader media industry consolidation ongoing
- Traditional cable networks facing subscriber losses
- Complex regulatory environment for media M&A
- Current focus on streaming over traditional cable
Recent Developments
- Musk's public criticism of MSNBC as "scum of the earth"
- Comcast moving forward with SpinCo plans
- No concrete evidence of acquisition discussions
- Industry-wide shift toward streaming and digital platforms
Prediction
Based on available evidence, it is highly unlikely that Elon Musk will acquire MSNBC by March 31, 2025. The combination of Comcast's restructuring plans, lack of serious intent from Musk, and significant regulatory/financial barriers suggest a probability of less than 5% for this outcome. The market should resolve to "No" barring dramatic and unexpected developments.
Will Elon Musk buy MSNBC by March 31, 2025?
Yes:5.0%
No:95.0%
Confidence: 8/10
Reasoning Score: 9/10