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Will Germany's AfD make it into government?
Elections for the parliaments of two German states, Thuringia and Saxony, are scheduled for September 1, 2024. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party officially joins the state government of either Thuringia or Saxony as part of a governing coalition as a result of the German elections held on September 1, 2024. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If both of these elections do not occur by December 31, 2024 ET, or if no new government is formed by that time, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the AfD association for each relevant state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Event Details
Total Volume: $261.1K
24h Volume: $357
Total Liquidity: $37.9K
Markets: 1
Event Ends: 12/31/2024
Event Analysis
Summary
The prediction market concerns whether Germany's far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party will enter government in either Thuringia or Saxony following state elections held on September 1, 2024. Based on the election results and subsequent developments, the AfD won the highest vote share in Thuringia and came in second in Saxony, but has been unable to form government in either state due to other parties' refusal to enter coalitions with them.
With just over a month remaining in 2024, and coalition governments already formed without AfD participation in both states, the market's current pricing of 97.5% probability for "No" appears well-justified. The combination of the "cordon sanitaire" maintained by other parties against working with the AfD, along with the limited time remaining, makes it extremely unlikely that the AfD will enter government in either state before year-end.
Analysis
Background
- State elections were held in both Thuringia and Saxony on September 1, 2024
- AfD performed strongly, winning in Thuringia with 32.8% and coming second in Saxony with 30.6%
- Other parties maintained their commitment not to form coalitions with the AfD
- Coalition governments have since been formed in both states excluding the AfD
Analysis of Potential Outcomes
"No" Outcome (97.5%)
- Coalition governments already formed without AfD participation
- Limited time remaining in 2024 for any changes
- Strong opposition from other parties to working with AfD
- Historical precedent of excluding AfD from government
"Yes" Outcome (2.5%)
- Would require dramatic and unexpected collapse of current coalitions
- Need complete reversal of other parties' stance on working with AfD
- Extremely unlikely given time constraints and political reality
Key Factors
- Political Isolation
- Other parties maintain strict policy against AfD cooperation
- AfD remains under surveillance by security services
- Recent mass deportation scandal reinforced concerns
- Coalition Dynamics
- Existing coalitions already formed and functioning
- No realistic path to government participation
- Time Constraints
- Market resolves end of 2024
- Insufficient time for major political realignments
Recent Developments
- AfD lost important district election runoff in Thuringia
- Continuing protests against far-right extremism
- Stable coalition governments operating in both states
Prediction
The AfD will not enter government in either Thuringia or Saxony before the end of 2024. With governments already formed excluding the AfD and just over a month remaining, I assess a 99% probability of "No" and 1% probability of "Yes". Confidence level is very high (9/10) given the clear political situation and time constraints.
Will Germany's AfD make it into government?
Yes:1.0%
No:99.0%
Confidence: 9/10
Reasoning Score: 9/10