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Will ICC withdraw its arrest warrant against Netanyahu before July?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the International Criminal Court (ICC) officially announces the withdrawal of its arrest warrant against Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the ICC, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Event Details
Total Volume: $9.6K
24h Volume: $143
Total Liquidity: $7.7K
Markets: 1
Event Ends: 6/30/2025
Event Analysis
Summary
In May 2024, the International Criminal Court (ICC) issued arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant related to alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity in Gaza. The warrants have sparked intense international debate and strong opposition from Israeli officials.
The question of whether the ICC will withdraw these warrants before June 30, 2025, involves complex legal, political, and diplomatic considerations. Recent developments, including support for the ICC's actions from countries like France and Norway, combined with Netanyahu's strong public rejection of the ICC's authority, suggest a low likelihood of warrant withdrawal within the specified timeframe.
Analysis
Background
- The ICC issued arrest warrants for Netanyahu and Gallant in May 2024
- Charges relate to alleged war crimes and use of starvation as a weapon of war in Gaza
- Israel does not recognize ICC jurisdiction and considers the warrants illegitimate
Recent Developments
- Britain has dropped its challenge to ICC jurisdiction
- France and Norway have publicly backed the ICC's actions
- Netanyahu has called the warrants "a moral outrage of historic proportions"
- Israel has committed legal resources ($32,000) to fight the warrants
Key Factors Influencing Outcome
-
International Support
- Growing international backing for ICC actions
- Limited challenges to ICC jurisdiction
- Strong European support for maintaining warrants
-
Political Dynamics
- Netanyahu's defiant stance reduces likelihood of compromise
- Israeli government unity against ICC
- No indication of diplomatic breakthrough
-
Legal Framework
- ICC's institutional independence
- Precedent of maintaining warrants despite political pressure
- Serious nature of allegations
Watch Items
- Changes in Israeli government leadership
- Major diplomatic interventions
- Developments in Gaza conflict
- Shifts in international support for ICC
Prediction
Based on the available evidence, there is a very low probability (approximately 15%) that the ICC will withdraw its arrest warrant against Netanyahu before June 30, 2025. The combination of strong international support for the ICC's actions, Netanyahu's defiant stance, and the serious nature of the allegations make withdrawal unlikely without major diplomatic or political changes.
Will_ICC_Withdraw_Netanyahu_Warrant
Yes:15.0%
No:85.0%
Confidence: 8/10
Reasoning Score: 9/10
Sources
- https://www.theguardian.com/law/article/2024/jul/26/britain-drops-challenge-icc-arrest-warrants-israeli-leaders-netanyahu-gallant
- https://www.latestly.com/world/benjamin-netanyahu-icc-arrest-warrant-france-norway-back-international-criminal-courts-action-on-israel-6435436.html
- https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2024-06-20/ty-article/.premium/israel-pays-32-000-in-legal-fees-for-iccs-arrest-warrant-requests-for-israeli-leaders/00000190-34f6-d690-a190-f4f723980000
Market Options
Will ICC withdraw its arrest warrant against Netanyahu before July?
Yes
30.5%
No
69.5%
Liquidity: $7.7K
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