The question of whether President Joe Biden will pardon his son Hunter Biden before the next presidential inauguration has become increasingly complex amid mounting legal challenges. Hunter Biden faces multiple federal indictments, including charges related to tax evasion, illegal firearm possession, and false statements. The political and personal dimensions of this situation create a challenging decision matrix for President Biden. The market currently shows a strong lean toward "No" (71.5%), reflecting both the political risks of issuing a pardon and the ongoing nature of Hunter Biden's legal proceedings. Key considerations include the timing of potential trials, the 2024 presidential election cycle, and the broader political implications of presidential pardons for family members.

Background and Context

Current Legal Status

• Hunter Biden faces multiple federal indictments:
  • Nine tax-related charges in California
  • Three felony gun charges in Delaware
  • Potential maximum sentences totaling over 40 years
• Previous plea deal collapsed under judicial scrutiny
• Active investigations by House Republicans

Political Environment

• Ongoing House impeachment inquiry into President Biden
• Heightened scrutiny of Biden family business dealings
• Approaching 2024 presidential election
• Republican messaging focused on Hunter Biden controversy

Analysis of Outcomes

Scenario 1: Pardon Issued (28.5%)

Factors Supporting:

• Strong family ties and President Biden's public support for Hunter
• Precedent of end-of-term pardons
• Potential desire to resolve legal issues before election

Risks:

• Significant political backlash
• Appearance of corruption/nepotism
• Impact on 2024 campaign
• Ammunition for impeachment efforts

Scenario 2: No Pardon Issued (71.5%)

Supporting Factors:

• Political cost likely outweighs benefits
• Ongoing legal proceedings
• Biden administration's emphasis on DOJ independence
• Need to maintain credibility on rule of law

Risks:

• Personal/family strain
• Potential conviction of Hunter Biden
• Long-term legal consequences for Hunter

Key Factors to Watch

1. Legal Timeline

• Progress of current cases
• Additional potential indictments
• Trial dates and schedules

2. Political Developments

• House impeachment inquiry findings
• 2024 election polling
• Public opinion trends

3. Administration Signals

• White House statements on Hunter Biden
• DOJ communications
• Biden family public appearances

4. Precedent Analysis

• Historical family-related pardons
• Recent pardon patterns
• Public reaction to similar cases