OddsChad
← Back to Events

Will Kamala get more votes than Biden?

According to uselectionatlas.org Joe Biden received 81,286,454 votes in the 2020 Presidential election (see: https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/). This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kamala receives 81,286,455 or more votes in the 2024 U.S. Presidential election. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the total number of votes in the 2024 Presidential election according to uselectionatlas.org once their dataset includes the certified vote totals for all U.S. States and the District of Columbia. If a recount is initiated before certification, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is certified. If a recount occurs after uselectionatlas.org has published vote totals based on the final certifications, the recount will not be considered. If there are no outstanding recounts, and electionatlas.org has not published total vote numbers based on the state certified results by December 17, 2024, 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the total vote numbers from the United States Elections Project (electproject.org). If the United States Elections Project has not published certified vote totals, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

Event Details

Total Volume: $95.3K
24h Volume: $4
Total Liquidity: $38.7K
Markets: 1
Event Ends: 12/17/2024

Event Analysis

Summary

The prediction market centers on whether Vice President Kamala Harris will receive more votes than Joe Biden's 2020 total of 81,286,454 in the 2024 presidential election. Recent polling data and campaign developments indicate Harris faces significant challenges in matching Biden's historic vote total, particularly given current voter sentiment and economic conditions. The search results reveal a complex political landscape where Harris has taken over as the Democratic nominee following Biden's withdrawal. While she shows some strengths in polling against Trump, particularly among key demographic groups, the path to exceeding Biden's 2020 vote total appears extremely difficult given current political dynamics and voter sentiment.

Analysis

Economic and Political Context

  • Current polling shows Harris in a competitive race with Trump, but with numbers that suggest lower overall Democratic enthusiasm compared to 2020
  • Economic concerns remain a key voter issue, with inflation and economic uncertainty potentially dampening Democratic turnout
  • Harris faces the challenge of both distancing herself from and building upon Biden's legacy

Analysis of Potential Outcomes

Yes (Harris exceeds 81,286,454 votes)

  • Strengths:

    • Strong support among younger voters and minorities according to Pew Research polling
    • Increased motivation among certain demographic groups compared to Biden
    • Potential to energize new voters who weren't engaged in 2020

  • Weaknesses:

    • Current polling suggests overall lower Democratic enthusiasm
    • Economic headwinds may suppress turnout
    • Third-party candidates could siphon votes
    • Historical difficulty in matching incumbent vote totals

No (Harris receives fewer than 81,286,454 votes)

  • Supporting factors:
    • Biden's 2020 total was historically high and aided by unique circumstances
    • Current polls show Harris struggling to consolidate Democratic base
    • Economic concerns may reduce voter turnout
    • Presence of third-party candidates like RFK Jr.

Key Factors to Watch

  1. Economic indicators leading up to election
  2. Voter turnout in primaries and special elections
  3. Harris's approval ratings and campaign momentum
  4. Impact of third-party candidates
  5. Trump's legal situations and their effect on voter mobilization

Recent Developments

  • Harris has shown improved polling against Trump in recent surveys
  • Campaign infrastructure being built in key battleground states
  • Some evidence of increased enthusiasm among key Democratic constituencies
  • Challenges in unifying Democratic base remain evident

Prediction

Based on available evidence, I assess there is a 95% probability that Harris will NOT exceed Biden's 2020 vote total. While Harris shows some strengths, the combination of economic headwinds, third-party candidates, and the historically unique circumstances of 2020 make exceeding 81.3M votes extremely unlikely. I assign a 5% probability to Harris exceeding Biden's total, primarily due to potential increased youth and minority turnout.

Will Kamala get more votes than Biden?

Yes:5.0%
No:95.0%
Confidence: 8/10
Reasoning Score: 9/10

Sources

Market Options

Will Kamala get more votes than Biden?

Yes
0.7%
No
99.3%
Liquidity: $38.7K
Trade →