The question of Kamala Harris's attendance at the January 20, 2025 presidential inauguration is closely tied to the outcome of the 2024 presidential election. Based on available evidence, Harris is actively campaigning for president, having announced her candidacy in July 2024 and selected Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her running mate. She is engaged in extensive campaign activities including rallies, fundraising, and cultural engagement efforts. The high market probability (94.5%) of her attendance reflects both historical precedent and political norms - sitting vice presidents and major party nominees typically attend inaugurations regardless of outcome. However, this must be weighed against increasing political polarization and the potential for contested election results that could impact attendance decisions.

Background and Context

Current Political Landscape

• Harris is actively campaigning for president in the 2024 election
• She has selected Tim Walz as running mate and is conducting extensive campaign activities
• Polls suggest a competitive race against Donald Trump
• Campaign is employing modern engagement strategies including celebrity endorsements and cultural outreach

Historical Precedent

• Vice presidents traditionally attend inaugurations even when their party loses
• Only rare exceptions have occurred in US history
• Ceremonial peaceful transfer of power is a cornerstone of democracy

Outcome Analysis

Scenario 1: Harris Wins Election

• Near 100% probability of attendance as the president-elect
• Would be constitutionally required to take oath of office
• Major historic moment as first female president

Scenario 2: Harris Loses Election

• Still high probability (~80-90%) of attendance as outgoing VP
• Political norms and institutional stability favor attendance
• Could face pressure to attend even if election is contested

Scenario 3: Election Disputed

• Most significant risk factor for non-attendance
• Precedent of contested elections causing inaugural tensions
• Could impact traditional ceremonial aspects

Key Factors to Watch

1. Election Results

• Margin of victory/defeat
• Potential legal challenges
• State certification processes

2. Political Climate

• Level of partisan tension
• Public statements about election integrity
• Party unity indicators

3. Security Concerns

• Threat assessments
• Capitol security preparations
• Public safety considerations

Recent Developments

• Harris's active campaign schedule suggests commitment to political process
• Selection of running mate indicates serious candidacy
• Continued engagement in vice presidential duties while campaigning