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Will Kendrick Lamar release another album in 2024?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kendrick Lamar officially releases a new album between November 25 and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM PT (Los Angeles time). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Officially released means that a newly released album is officially available for download or streaming (not including live events) by the resolution date. The resolution source will be any official Kendrick Lamar streaming or download site, e.g. Apple Music or Spotify.
Event Details
Total Volume: $9.4K
24h Volume: $1.2K
Total Liquidity: $3.6K
Markets: 1
Event Ends: 12/31/2024
Event Analysis
Summary
The market considers whether Kendrick Lamar will release a new album in 2024. Lamar's last album "Mr. Morale & The Big Steppers" was released in 2022, and he has recently been active with new music through a Chanel short film collaboration in January 2024.
The available evidence suggests limited likelihood of a new album in 2024. While Lamar remains creatively active through collaborations and one-off releases, there are no concrete indicators of an album release planned for 2024. His historical pattern of taking significant time between albums (such as the 1,855-day gap before his last release) and the careful, lengthy creative process described by collaborators suggests a 2024 release is unlikely.
Analysis
Recent Activity and Context
- Latest full album: "Mr. Morale & The Big Steppers" (2022)
- Recent releases:
- New track for Chanel short film "The Button" (January 2024)
- Collaboration with Baby Keem on "The Hillbillies"
- Featured on Beyoncé's "America Has a Problem" remix
Factors Supporting a 2024 Release
- Active creation of new music (Chanel collaboration)
- Continued engagement in musical collaborations
- Large volume of unreleased material (reportedly 400+ songs from previous sessions)
Factors Against a 2024 Release
- No announcements or hints of album plans
- Historical pattern of long gaps between albums
- Meticulous creative process described by DJ Dahi requiring extensive development time
- Absence from major 2024 album release lists and industry previews
Key Factors to Watch
- Official announcements or social media activity
- Studio session reports from known collaborators
- Label or management statements
- Tour announcements or live performance schedules
Recent Developments
The only significant new music from Kendrick in 2024 has been the Chanel short film soundtrack, which appears to be a one-off collaboration rather than album-related content.
Prediction
Based on the available evidence, I predict a low probability (15%) that Kendrick Lamar will release a new album in 2024. The lack of announcements, his historical release patterns, and the detailed creative process required for his albums suggest that a 2024 release is unlikely. While he remains musically active, his current output appears focused on collaborations and special projects rather than a full album release.
Will Kendrick Lamar release a new album in 2024?
Yes:15.0%
No:85.0%
Confidence: 7/10
Reasoning Score: 8/10
Sources
- https://www.thefader.com/2024/01/22/kendrick-lamar-pglang-chanel-the-button-new-music
- https://www.rollingstone.com/music/music-features/dj-dahi-breaks-down-the-five-year-process-behind-kendrick-lamars-new-album-1357269/
- https://pitchfork.com/features/lists-and-guides/the-most-anticipated-albums-of-2024/
- https://variety.com/lists/most-anticipated-albums-2024