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MSFT shareholders vote for Bitcoin investment?

Microsoft is scheduled to hold a vote for on the "Assessment of Investing in Bitcoin" at their December 10, 2024 shareholder meeting (see: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312524242884/d878959ddefa14a.htm) This market will resolve to "Yes" if Microsoft's shareholders approve the "Assessment of Investing in Bitcoin" at the shareholder meeting scheduled for December 10, 2024. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If the vote does not take place, or if results of the vote are not released by December 31st, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "No". The resolution source will be official information from Microsoft or filings with the SEC.

Event Details

Total Volume: $1.5M
24h Volume: $71.2K
Total Liquidity: $104.7K
Markets: 1
Event Ends: 12/10/2024

Event Analysis

Summary

Microsoft shareholders are set to vote on December 10, 2024, regarding a proposal to assess investing in Bitcoin. The proposal, submitted by the National Center for Public Policy Research (NCPPR), seeks to prompt Microsoft to allocate at least 1% of its assets into Bitcoin. Despite having Michael Saylor as a key advocate presenting the case, Microsoft's board has publicly recommended against the proposal. The vote comes at a critical time for Bitcoin and cryptocurrency markets, with several major catalysts expected throughout 2024, including the potential approval of Bitcoin ETFs, the Bitcoin halving event, and new regulatory frameworks being implemented. However, the board's strong opposition, combined with institutional wariness about cryptocurrency volatility and recent examples like Tesla's losses in crypto investments, creates significant headwinds for the proposal's approval.

Analysis

Economic Background

  • Federal Reserve is expected to begin cutting interest rates in March 2024
  • Economic conditions show mixed signals, with potential recession concerns
  • Bitcoin has shown strong performance in 2024, reaching new ATHs around $73,000
  • Institutional adoption of crypto increasing with pending ETF approvals

Outcome Analysis

Yes Vote (10.5% Market Probability)

Supportive factors:

  • Strong Bitcoin performance and mainstream adoption
  • Michael Saylor's influential presentation
  • FASB's new fair value accounting standards for Bitcoin
  • Growing institutional acceptance via ETFs

Challenges:

  • Board's explicit recommendation against
  • Corporate governance typically follows board recommendations
  • Recent examples of corporate losses in crypto (Tesla)
  • Traditional shareholder base may be conservative

No Vote (89.5% Market Probability)

Supporting factors:

  • Board recommendation carries significant weight
  • Conservative institutional shareholders
  • Volatility concerns in crypto markets
  • Risk management priorities for large tech company

Key Factors to Watch

  1. Bitcoin ETF Approval & Performance (January 2024)
  2. Fed Rate Decisions (March 2024)
  3. Bitcoin Halving Impact (April 2024)
  4. Regulatory Developments (MiCA in June 2024)
  5. Microsoft Board Communications
  6. Institutional Sentiment Leading to Vote

Recent Developments

  • Bitcoin reaching new ATHs in Spring 2024
  • Board's formal recommendation against proposal
  • Michael Saylor confirmed as presenter for NCPPR
  • Growing institutional adoption of cryptocurrency
  • Improved regulatory framework developments

Prediction

I predict with high confidence (8/10) that Microsoft shareholders will vote against the Bitcoin investment proposal, aligning with the board's recommendation. The current market probability of 89.5% for a "No" vote appears well-calibrated given the significant institutional barriers and board opposition. While cryptocurrency adoption is growing, corporate governance patterns strongly suggest shareholders will follow the board's recommendation.

MSFT shareholders vote for Bitcoin investment?

Yes:12.0%
No:88.0%
Confidence: 8/10
Reasoning Score: 9/10

Sources

Market Options

MSFT shareholders vote for Bitcoin investment?

Yes
11.5%
No
88.5%
Liquidity: $104.7K
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