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Will MicroStrategy hold 400k+ BTC before 2025?
On November 18, MicroStrategy announced that together with its subsidiaries, held an aggregate of approximately 331,200 bitcoins (see: https://assets.contentstack.io/v3/assets/bltb564490bc5201f31/bltc841ab65fe7d972b/673b392ad908785dbba03616/form_8-k_11-18-2024.pdf). This market will resolve to "Yes" if MicroStrategy holds 400,000 or more bitcoins at any point befroe December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will announcements from MicroStrategy or Michael Saylor as to their total BTC holdings.
Event Details
Total Volume: $715.1K
24h Volume: $44.6K
Total Liquidity: $17.7K
Markets: 1
Event Ends: 12/31/2024
Event Analysis
Summary
MicroStrategy's Bitcoin holdings have grown significantly throughout 2024, with recent major purchases bringing their total to approximately 386,700 BTC as of November 24, 2024. The company has demonstrated an aggressive acquisition strategy, including a massive purchase of 51,780 BTC for $4.6 billion in mid-November 2024.
With just over a month remaining until the market resolution date of December 31, 2024, MicroStrategy needs to acquire roughly 13,300 additional BTC to reach the 400,000 threshold. Given their recent purchasing patterns, demonstrated ability to raise capital, and CEO Michael Saylor's unwavering commitment to Bitcoin accumulation, the probability of reaching this milestone appears high.
Analysis
Economic Background
- Bitcoin has seen significant price appreciation in 2024, driven by institutional adoption and spot ETF approvals
- MicroStrategy has leveraged various financing mechanisms, including stock offerings and debt, to fund Bitcoin purchases
- The company has demonstrated ability to execute large purchases without significantly impacting market prices
Recent Developments
Latest Holdings Update
- November 24, 2024: 386,700 BTC total holdings
- Recent major purchase: 51,780 BTC (~$4.6B) between Nov 11-17, 2024
- Average acquisition cost has increased to $56,761 per bitcoin
Purchase Trajectory
- Q3 2023: ~158,400 BTC
- November 2023: Added 16,130 BTC
- November 2024: Added 51,780 BTC
- Clear acceleration in acquisition pace
Key Factors to Watch
-
Time Remaining
- ~33 days until market resolution
- Need ~13,300 more BTC to reach 400k threshold
-
Capital Availability
- Historical success in raising funds through stock offerings
- Demonstrated ability to execute large purchases
-
Market Conditions
- Bitcoin price volatility could affect purchase timing
- Institutional competition for available supply
-
Management Commitment
- Michael Saylor remains strongly committed to Bitcoin strategy
- Recent purchases show increasing aggression in accumulation
Risk Assessment
Positive Factors
- Recent purchase history shows capability to acquire needed amount
- Strong track record of successful capital raising
- Clear management commitment to strategy
Potential Risks
- Market volatility could limit purchasing power
- Regulatory changes or restrictions
- Competition for available Bitcoin supply
Prediction
Given MicroStrategy's current holdings of 386,700 BTC, recent purchase patterns, and demonstrated ability to execute large acquisitions, I assess a 92% probability they will reach 400,000 BTC before 2025. The remaining requirement of ~13,300 BTC is well within their demonstrated capability, as evidenced by recent larger purchases. Current market probability of 86.5% appears slightly low given the evidence.
Will MicroStrategy hold 400k+ BTC before 2025?
Yes:92.0%
No:8.0%
Confidence: 8/10
Reasoning Score: 9/10