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Will MicroStrategy purchase more Bitcoin in 2024?
On November 25, MicroStrategy announced that between November 18, 2024 and November 24, 2024, the Company acquired approximately 55,500 Bitcoin (see: https://assets.contentstack.io/v3/assets/bltb564490bc5201f31/blt5811951b37d01852/674474c2e601915d34c3dbb7/form_8-k_11-25-2024.pdf). This market will resolve to "Yes" if MicroStrategy announces that they have acquired additional Bitcoin by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from MicroStrategy or Michael Saylor.
Event Details
Total Volume: $52.1K
24h Volume: $21.4K
Total Liquidity: $18.0K
Markets: 1
Event Ends: 12/31/2024
Event Analysis
Summary
MicroStrategy has demonstrated a consistent and aggressive strategy of Bitcoin acquisition throughout 2023, including major purchases of 16,130 BTC in November 2023 and plans to raise additional capital through stock offerings. The company, under Michael Saylor's leadership, has positioned itself as one of the largest corporate holders of Bitcoin with approximately 174,530 BTC as of late 2023.
Recent filings and public statements indicate MicroStrategy's continued commitment to Bitcoin as a treasury reserve asset, with strategic moves including a $750 million ATM stock offering to potentially fund further acquisitions. The company's track record and recent activities, combined with Saylor's bullish outlook for 2024 regarding potential Bitcoin ETF approval, suggest a high likelihood of continued Bitcoin purchases in 2024.
Analysis
Current Position
- MicroStrategy holds approximately 174,530 BTC as of November 2023
- Average cost basis of $30,252 per Bitcoin
- Recent purchase of 16,130 BTC in November 2023 at ~$36,785 per coin
Strategic Indicators
Financial Positioning
- Filed for $750 million ATM stock offering
- Demonstrated willingness to raise capital for Bitcoin purchases
- Strong commitment to Bitcoin as treasury reserve strategy
Market Factors
- Potential Spot Bitcoin ETF approval in 2024
- Increasing institutional adoption of cryptocurrency
- Bitcoin price performance and market volatility
Key Risk Factors
- Bitcoin price volatility
- Regulatory environment
- Market liquidity
- Corporate cash flow and capital availability
Recent Developments
- November 2023: Purchased 16,130 BTC
- December 2023: Continued aggressive acquisition strategy
- Plans for additional capital raising through stock offerings
Factors to Watch
- SEC decisions on Bitcoin ETF applications
- Overall crypto market conditions
- Company's quarterly financial results
- New stock offering execution
Prediction
Based on MicroStrategy's consistent pattern of Bitcoin acquisition, stated strategy, and recent capital raising activities, there is a very high probability (90%) that the company will purchase additional Bitcoin in 2024. The company has demonstrated both the ability and willingness to continue its acquisition strategy, supported by strategic capital raising and strong executive commitment to Bitcoin as a reserve asset.
Will MicroStrategy purchase more Bitcoin in 2024?
Yes:90.0%
No:10.0%
Confidence: 8/10
Reasoning Score: 9/10
Sources
- https://www.microstrategy.com/press/microstrategy-acquires-additional-16130-bitcoins-and-now-holds-174530-btc_11-30-2023
- https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2023/11/30/microstrategy-bought-600m-of-btc-in-november-increased-holdings-by-10/
- https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/microstrategy-buys-16130-bitcoin-november-bringing-total-174530
- https://www.microstrategy.com/press/microstrategy-announces-third-quarter-2023-financial-results_11-01-2023