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Will Milady flip BAYC in 2024?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Milady has a higher floor price than Bored Ape Yacht Club (BAYC) for at least 1 continuous hour between May 20 and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be Blur's chart for each NFT, specifically the red line for 1d sales, for the dates within this market's range (Milady: https://blur.io/eth/collection/milady, BAYC: https://blur.io/collection/boredapeyachtclub). If Blur becomes unavailable or ceases to report figures, another credible source may be used. Note: If the 1 hour long period starts at e.g. December 31, 2024 11:20 PM ET it will still count for this market.

Event Details

Total Volume: $104.1K
24h Volume: $35
Total Liquidity: $9.8K
Markets: 1
Event Ends: 12/31/2024

Event Analysis

Summary

The prediction market concerns whether the Milady NFT collection will achieve a higher floor price than Bored Ape Yacht Club (BAYC) for at least one continuous hour between May 20 and December 31, 2024. This "flipping" scenario represents a significant potential shift in the NFT market hierarchy, as BAYC has historically maintained its position as one of the most valuable NFT collections. Based on current market data and research, BAYC's floor price significantly exceeds Milady's, with BAYC at approximately 4,884 ETH compared to Milady's 350.79 ETH. While the NFT market shows signs of potential growth in 2024, with projected CAGR of 35.02% through 2027, the gap between these collections remains substantial and would require extraordinary circumstances for Milady to briefly surpass BAYC's floor price.

Analysis

Economic Background

  • The NFT market experienced significant contraction in 2023, with average prices falling 42%
  • Market showing signs of recovery with projected growth rate of 35.02% CAGR through 2027
  • Institutional interest increasing, particularly with potential Bitcoin ETF approvals driving crypto market sentiment

Analysis of Outcomes

Outcome: Milady Flips BAYC (5.5% probability)

Requirements:

  • Sustained price surge for Milady
  • Potential market disruption or negative catalyst for BAYC
  • Strong momentum in broader NFT market

Supporting Factors:

  • Growing institutional interest in NFT space
  • Emergence of new trading platforms and financial products
  • Potential for rapid price movements in NFT markets

Outcome: BAYC Maintains Dominance (94.5% probability)

Supporting Evidence:

  • Current floor price differential (~4,500 ETH)
  • BAYC's established brand value and network effects
  • Historical resilience during market downturns

Key Factors to Watch

Market Infrastructure

  • Competition between NFT marketplaces (Blur vs OpenSea)
  • Development of NFT derivatives and financial products
  • Integration with traditional finance platforms

Community Dynamics

  • Social media engagement metrics
  • Development team activities
  • Partnership announcements

Technical Indicators

  • Trading volume trends
  • Unique holder statistics
  • Floor price volatility

Recent Developments

  • BAYC floor price reported at lowest level since August 2021 in ETH terms
  • Blur marketplace gaining dominance with 80% trading volume
  • Increasing focus on utility-driven NFT applications

Prediction

Based on comprehensive analysis of market data and trends, I predict with high confidence (8/10) that Milady will not flip BAYC in 2024. The current price differential and established market position of BAYC make a flip extremely unlikely, though not impossible given the volatile nature of NFT markets. I assign a 96% probability to BAYC maintaining its position above Milady, slightly higher than the current market estimate of 94.5%.

Will Milady flip BAYC in 2024?

Yes:4.0%
No:96.0%
Confidence: 8/10
Reasoning Score: 9/10

Sources

Market Options

Will Milady flip BAYC in 2024?

Yes
5.0%
No
95.0%
Liquidity: $9.8K
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