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Will Neymar leave Al-Hilal?
This is a market on whether Neymar will leave Al-Hilal in the winter transfer window, which closes on January 30, 2025. This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that Neymar will leave Al-Hilal by January 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET . Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If Neymar is transferred to another club, is loaned to another club, terminates his contract with Al-Hilal, or retires: this market will resolve to "Yes". This market's resolution source will be official announcements from Neymar, Al-Hilal or the signing club.
Event Details
Total Volume: $3.7K
24h Volume: $50
Total Liquidity: $379
Markets: 1
Event Ends: 1/30/2025
Event Analysis
Summary
The prediction market focuses on whether Neymar will leave Al-Hilal before January 31, 2025. The situation is complex, involving multiple factors including Neymar's serious ACL injury (reported in October 2023), recent personal developments including his breakup with Bruna Biancardi, and Al-Hilal's active transfer market movements.
Recent reports suggest Neymar won't return to action until 2025, and there are rumors about a potential return to Santos when his Al-Hilal contract expires. The Saudi club meanwhile continues to be active in the transfer market, pursuing players like Vitor Roque and previously showing interest in Lionel Messi, indicating potential squad restructuring.
Analysis
Market Analysis: Neymar's Potential Al-Hilal Exit
Current Situation
- Neymar is currently sidelined with an ACL injury until 2025
- Al-Hilal continues aggressive recruitment of high-profile players
- Personal factors including recent relationship breakup may influence decisions
Key Factors Supporting Exit (33% Probability)
- Injury Recovery
- Long-term ACL injury could prompt club to seek alternatives
- Recovery timeline extends beyond current season
- Club may view this as opportunity for squad restructuring
- Transfer Market Activity
- Al-Hilal pursuing other high-profile attackers
- Active interest in players like Vitor Roque
- Club showing willingness to make major squad changes
- Personal Circumstances
- Recent breakup and personal challenges
- Potential desire for fresh start
- Rumors of Santos return gaining traction
Factors Supporting Stay (67% Probability)
- Contract Situation
- Recent signing with substantial financial commitment
- Injury makes transfer complicated
- Limited market for injured player
- Club Investment
- Al-Hilal made significant financial commitment to sign Neymar
- Marketing value remains high despite injury
- Saudi league continues to prioritize star power
- Timing Constraints
- January transfer window complexity
- Injury recovery timeline limits options
- Few clubs likely to risk signing injured player
Recent Developments
- Reports confirm no return until 2025
- Al-Hilal continuing transfer market activity
- Santos return rumors emerging for summer 2024
Risk Factors to Monitor
- Injury recovery progress
- Al-Hilal's transfer window activity
- Emerging interest from other clubs
- Saudi league competitive landscape
Prediction
Based on available evidence, Neymar is more likely to remain with Al-Hilal through January 2025. The combination of his serious injury, recent signing, and limited transfer options during injury recovery makes an exit improbable. I estimate 30% probability of departure and 70% probability of staying, roughly aligned with current market prices.
Will Neymar leave Al-Hilal?
Yes:30.0%
No:70.0%
Confidence: 7/10
Reasoning Score: 8/10