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GPT-5 released in 2024?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-5 model is made available to the general public by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," GPT-5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public. GPT-5 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5, or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-4, similar to the progression from GPT-3 to GPT-4. Products labeled as GPT-4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Event Details

Total Volume: $658.2K
24h Volume: $415
Total Liquidity: $12.4K
Markets: 1
Event Ends: 12/31/2024

Event Analysis

Summary

The prediction market focuses on whether OpenAI will publicly release GPT-5 by December 31, 2024. Based on extensive review of recent developments and official communications from OpenAI, there is very strong evidence suggesting GPT-5 will not be released within this timeframe. While OpenAI continues to advance its AI capabilities through iterations like GPT-4 Turbo and GPT-4o, there are no credible indicators of an imminent GPT-5 release. Multiple sources, including OpenAI's own announcements and CEO Sam Altman's communications, point to a focus on improving existing models rather than rushing to release GPT-5. The recent launch of GPT-4o and GPT-4o mini in mid-2024 further supports this trajectory, as OpenAI appears to be taking an incremental approach to model development rather than making a dramatic leap to GPT-5 in 2024.

Analysis

Current State of OpenAI's Development

  • OpenAI has focused on iterative improvements to GPT-4 throughout 2024
  • Major releases included:
    • GPT-4 Turbo (November 2023)
    • GPT-4o (May 2024)
    • GPT-4o mini (July 2024)
  • No official announcements or credible leaks regarding GPT-5 release in 2024

Analysis of Potential Outcomes

"Yes" Outcome (2.8% Current Market Price)

  • Would require:
    • Surprise announcement from OpenAI
    • Accelerated development timeline
    • Public release within 33 days
  • Major barriers:
    • No indication of GPT-5 in development pipeline
    • Recent focus on GPT-4 iterations
    • Limited time remaining in 2024

"No" Outcome (97.3% Current Market Price)

  • Supported by:
    • Lack of official announcements
    • Pattern of incremental releases
    • Sam Altman's recent communications
    • Technical complexity of major version upgrades

Key Factors to Watch

  1. Official Communications
  • Sam Altman's December 2023 tweet listed GPT-5 as a "common request" but gave no timeline
  • No subsequent official mentions of GPT-5 release plans
  1. Development Patterns
  • Focus on improving existing models rather than new versions
  • Emphasis on cost efficiency and specialized variants
  1. Market Competition
  • No competitive pressure forcing early GPT-5 release
  • Other companies also focusing on incremental improvements

Recent Developments

  • May 2024: Release of GPT-4o showing focus on improving current generation
  • July 2024: GPT-4o mini launch emphasizing cost-efficient alternatives
  • No significant GPT-5 related announcements or leaks in past 6 months

Prediction

With extremely high confidence, I predict GPT-5 will NOT be released by December 31, 2024. The combination of recent developments, official communications, and limited remaining time makes a release extremely unlikely. I estimate a 99% probability of "No" and 1% probability of "Yes", suggesting the current market prices slightly undervalue the "No" outcome.

GPT-5 released in 2024?

Yes:1.0%
No:99.0%
Confidence: 9/10
Reasoning Score: 9/10

Sources

Market Options

GPT-5 released in 2024?

Yes
3.3%
No
96.8%
Liquidity: $12.4K
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