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Will Putin remain President of Russia through 2024?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Vladimir Putin remains the President of Russia without interruption from March 25, 2024 through December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be the CIA World Factbook page for Russia, currently available at https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/countries/russia/#government. A consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Event Details
Total Volume: $426.2K
24h Volume: $3.2K
Total Liquidity: $20.3K
Markets: 1
Event Ends: 12/31/2024
Event Analysis
Summary
The question of Vladimir Putin's continued presidency through 2024 has become a crucial focus for political analysts and prediction market traders. Following his March 2024 election victory amid claims of electoral manipulation and suppression of opposition, Putin has maintained his grip on power through a combination of strong institutional control, popular support bolstered by wartime nationalism, and effective management of elite interests.
Current market prices showing 97% probability of Putin remaining in power through 2024 reflect the strong structural advantages of his position and the lack of credible mechanisms for removal. However, traders must carefully weigh factors including his health, potential elite defection, war developments, and economic pressures that could create unexpected disruptions to his presidency in the remaining weeks of 2024.
Analysis
Political Context and Current Status
Electoral Environment
- Putin won the March 2024 election with an overwhelming majority
- Opposition was effectively neutralized through legal restrictions and persecution
- Election characterized by high turnout driven by state pressure on voters
- Constitutional changes allow Putin to remain in power until 2036
Support Base and Control
- Current approval ratings around 83-86% according to Levada Center polling
- Support enhanced by wartime nationalism and anti-Western sentiment
- Tight control over media and political discourse
- Strong backing from security services and key elite groups
Key Risk Factors
Internal Stability Risks
- Elite dissatisfaction with lack of career advancement opportunities
- Economic pressures from sanctions and war expenditure
- Regional unrest in areas like Dagestan and Bashkortostan
- Potential health issues given Putin's age
External Pressures
- Ongoing war in Ukraine creating military and economic strain
- International isolation and sanctions impact
- Low global confidence in Putin's leadership (73% negative)
- Potential escalation of conflicts with West
Economic Factors
- High military spending straining budget
- Inflation and cost of living concerns
- Labor shortages in key sectors
- Resilient but stressed economy
Recent Developments
- Successful navigation of 2024 election period
- Continued management of war situation
- Reshuffling of government positions to maintain control
- Effective suppression of opposition movements
Prediction
Based on comprehensive analysis of current conditions and risk factors, I assess a 96% probability that Putin will remain President of Russia through 2024. While there are potential risks to his presidency, the short remaining timeframe and his strong institutional control make removal or resignation highly unlikely. The 4% probability of interruption accounts for low-probability but high-impact events like severe health issues or extreme elite defection scenarios.
Will Putin remain President of Russia through 2024?
Yes:96.0%
No:4.0%
Confidence: 8/10
Reasoning Score: 9/10
Sources
- https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/putin-is-master-all-he-surveys-russians-head-polls-2024-03-15/
- https://www.levada.ru/en/2023/11/17/conflict-with-ukraine-assessments-for-september-2023/
- https://ridl.io/empty-hopes-for-a-big-reshuffle/
- https://www.fpri.org/article/2024/06/challenging-the-kremlins-narrative-of-stability-in-wartime/