Will Russia capture Kurakhove before December?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia controls the intersection of Zaporizkyi prospekt (H-15) and Minska vulytsia in Kurakhove Ukraine by November 30, 2024 at 11:59 PM ET. The intersection will be considered captured if the intersection where the roads meet is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by November 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”. Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/kurakhove+intersection.png Kurakhove Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/kurakhove+location.jpeg Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/5RiWB9CBKnjC6hzt5 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
Event Details
Event Analysis
Summary
Analysis
Military Context and Current Situation
Recent Developments
- Russia is conducting coordinated multi-axis offensives in eastern Ukraine, showing improved tactical coordination
- Ukrainian forces have demonstrated resilience and effective defensive operations
- Western military aid continues to play a crucial role in Ukraine's defensive capabilities
Battle for Kurakhove Context
- Located in a strategically significant area of Donetsk Oblast
- Current fighting characterized by high attrition rates on both sides
- Russian forces facing challenges in maintaining offensive momentum
Key Factors Affecting Capture Probability
Favorable Factors for Russian Capture:
- Increased coordination in Russian offensive operations
- Material and manpower advantages following mobilization
- Strategic focus on capturing key urban centers
- Demonstrated ability to sustain long-term offensive operations
Factors Against Russian Capture:
- Strong Ukrainian defensive positions and capabilities
- Continued Western military support for Ukraine
- High Russian casualty rates affecting offensive capabilities
- Logistical challenges in maintaining territorial gains
- Ukrainian ability to counter with effective drone and artillery operations
Critical Variables to Monitor
- Western Support Levels
- Continuation of military aid packages
- Training and equipment delivery timelines
- Political commitment from NATO allies
- Battlefield Momentum
- Success of current Russian offensive operations
- Ukrainian counteroffensive capabilities
- Casualty rates and force preservation
- Strategic Priority
- Russian focus on other operational objectives
- Ukrainian defensive prioritization
- Regional strategic significance
- Seasonal Considerations
- Impact of weather on military operations
- Logistical challenges in different conditions
- Timing of major offensive operations
Recommendations for Traders
- Monitor These Key Indicators:
- ISW daily battle maps and territory control updates
- Western aid package announcements
- Russian force deployments in the region
- Ukrainian defensive preparations
- Consider Position Timing:
- Early position-taking recommended given potential for rapid developments
- Regular position review based on battlefield developments
- Hedge against unexpected tactical shifts
- Risk Management:
- Maintain balanced exposure given battlefield uncertainties
- Consider partial position taking to manage risk
- Monitor for significant tactical developments that could shift probabilities