Will Russia capture Pokrovsk in 2024?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures St. Michael's church in Pokrovsk located on Hrushevskoho Vulytsia by December 31, 2024 at 11:59 PM ET. The church will be considered captured if any part of building is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”. Once Russia captures the church, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Church Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Pokrovsk+Church+Location.png Pokrovsk Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Pokrovosk+Location.png Location on Google maps: https://www.google.com/maps/@48.2794472,37.1801207,592m/data=!3m1!1e3?entry=ttu The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Event Details
Event Analysis
Summary
Analysis
Military Situation Analysis
Current Battlefield Dynamics
- Russian forces are actively conducting offensive operations in the Pokrovsk direction
- Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi has highlighted the Pokrovsk direction as an area of particular focus
- Russians are reportedly close to seizing key height at Kruty Yar, which could provide fire control advantages
Russian Capabilities & Constraints
- Evidence of declining combat effectiveness due to redeployment of elite units
- Low morale and logistical issues reported, particularly in nearby operations
- Significant financial investment in recruitment (90 billion rubles) indicates personnel challenges
- Crypto-mobilization efforts ongoing but with diminishing effectiveness
Ukrainian Defense Posture
- Active defensive operations in the region
- Receiving continued Western military support, including ATACMS missiles
- Strong international diplomatic backing as evidenced by presidential awards to allied officials
- Emphasis on strengthening air defense systems and weapons production
Key Factors to Watch
- Territorial Control
- Current distance from Russian forces to St. Michael's Church
- Progress in capturing surrounding strategic positions
- Status of Ukrainian counteroffensive operations
- Military Resources
- Russian troop concentration in Pokrovsk direction
- Effectiveness of Ukrainian air defense systems
- Continuation of Western military aid
- Strategic Value
- Importance of Pokrovsk in broader Donbas offensive
- Impact of terrain on military operations
- Secondary effects of capturing Kruty Yar
Recent Developments
- Zelenskyy's staff meeting highlighted focus on Pokrovsk direction
- Russian forces intensifying efforts despite resource constraints
- Ukrainian military preparing for sustained defense through 2024