Will Russia capture Siversk before December?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Siversk railroad station located off of Zaliznychna Vulytsia by November 30, 2024 at 11:59 PM ET. The railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by November 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”. Once Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Train Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/siversk+train+station.jpeg Siversk Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/siversk+location.jpeg Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/WCVn7wGSy1i289Nw8 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
Event Details
Event Analysis
Summary
Analysis
Current Military Situation
Russian Position
- Russian forces continue to conduct offensive operations but have made limited territorial gains in 2024
- Facing significant challenges with troop quality and equipment despite attempts at modernization
- Recent focus has been on defensive operations and responding to Ukrainian counteroffensives
- S-500 air defense system deployment announced but unlikely to significantly impact ground operations
Ukrainian Position
- Maintaining effective defensive positions around key strategic areas
- Successfully conducting counter-battery operations
- Recently demonstrated capability with ATACMS strikes against Russian positions
- Maintaining control of key supply lines and defensive infrastructure
Key Factors Affecting Siversk Capture Probability
Time Constraints
- Only 2 days remain until the December deadline
- Historical pace of Russian advances suggests insufficient time for capture
- Weather conditions in late November typically unfavorable for major offensives
Military Capabilities
- Russian forces showing signs of strain and degraded combat effectiveness
- Recruitment challenges persist despite financial incentives
- Ukrainian forces maintain strong defensive positions
- Air defense improvements (S-500) unlikely to enable breakthrough
Strategic Context
- Russia currently focused on defensive operations in multiple sectors
- Limited evidence of preparation for major offensive toward Siversk
- Ukrainian forces maintaining operational initiative in key areas
Recent Developments
- ATACMS strikes on Russian positions demonstrate Ukrainian capability
- Russian defensive focus suggests limited offensive capacity
- No significant Russian advances reported in Siversk direction
- Weather conditions deteriorating as winter approaches