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Will Russia recapture Sudzha before December?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Sudzha railroad station located on Privokzal'naya ulitsa by November 30, 2024 at 11:59 PM ET. The railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by November 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”. Once Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Train Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Sudzha+train.jpeg Sudzha Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Sudzha+location.jpeg Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/s7MXZ3FSQBaVkAMk9 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.

Event Details

Total Volume: $601.0K
24h Volume: $11.5K
Total Liquidity: $12.4K
Markets: 1
Event Ends: 11/30/2024

Event Analysis

Summary

The prediction market concerns whether Russia will recapture the Sudzha railroad station before December 2024. Based on recent developments and analysis of multiple sources, the likelihood of Russia recapturing Sudzha appears extremely low with just two days remaining before the resolution date. Recent reports indicate significant challenges facing Russian military logistics and infrastructure, including successful Ukrainian sabotage operations targeting key railway connections. Combined with apparent Ukrainian defensive capabilities and Russia's current military prioritization, there appears to be little prospect of Russia mounting a successful offensive to capture Sudzha in the immediate term.

Analysis

Current Situation

Military Context

  • Sudzha railroad station remains a strategically important logistics hub
  • Russian forces are currently engaged in multiple operational theaters
  • Ukraine has demonstrated increased capability to strike deep within Russian territory
  • Recent successful Ukrainian attacks on Russian railway infrastructure have disrupted supply lines

Recent Developments

  • Ukraine's security service (SBU) executed successful strikes on key railway infrastructure connecting Russia and China
  • Russian military experiencing logistical challenges due to damaged rail networks
  • Russian forces appear focused on defensive operations rather than new offensive campaigns
  • Only 2 days remain until market resolution

Key Factors Influencing Outcome

Supporting Russian Recapture

  • Long-term Russian strategic plans include territorial expansion in eastern Ukraine
  • Railway infrastructure remains critical for military logistics
  • Russia maintains significant military presence in the region

Against Russian Recapture

  • Time constraint (only 2 days remaining)
  • Disrupted Russian supply lines and logistics
  • Ukrainian defensive capabilities and successful counter-operations
  • No evidence of imminent Russian offensive toward Sudzha
  • Russian forces appear stretched across multiple fronts

Market Analysis

  • Current market prices (98.9% No, 1.1% Yes) appear well-aligned with available evidence
  • The extremely short timeframe makes a Russian capture highly improbable
  • No credible intelligence suggests imminent Russian offensive operations in the area

Prediction

With only two days remaining until resolution and no evidence of imminent Russian offensive operations, I assess a 99.5% probability that Russia will NOT recapture Sudzha before December 2024. The remaining 0.5% accounts for extreme low-probability scenarios such as unexpected Ukrainian withdrawal or catastrophic defensive failure.

Will Russia recapture Sudzha before December?

Yes:0.5%
No:99.5%
Confidence: 9/10
Reasoning Score: 8/10

Sources

Market Options

Will Russia recapture Sudzha before December?

Yes
0.8%
No
99.2%
Liquidity: $12.4K
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