Will Russia use a nuclear weapon in 2024?

The question of whether Russia will use a nuclear weapon in 2024 has taken on heightened significance following Russia's recent update to its nuclear doctrine, which expands the scenarios under which nuclear weapons might be deployed. The doctrine now explicitly states that Russia may consider nuclear responses to conventional attacks that threaten its sovereignty, particularly those involving NATO allies or nuclear powers. The analysis indicates a relatively low probability of Russia using nuclear weapons offensively in 2024, despite the aggressive rhetoric and doctrinal changes. While Russia has increased its reliance on nuclear deterrence amid conventional military challenges in Ukraine, the use of nuclear threats appears to be primarily aimed at strategic messaging rather than indicating imminent offensive nuclear action. Key factors include Russia's military restructuring efforts, the outcome of its March 2024 presidential election, and the evolution of the Ukraine conflict.

Current Strategic Context

• Russia has recently updated its nuclear doctrine to broaden circumstances for potential nuclear use
• Military spending is set to increase by ~70% in 2024
• Conventional forces show signs of degradation and organizational challenges
• Presidential election in March 2024 marks a potential inflection point

Analysis of Potential Outcomes

Outcome 1: Nuclear Weapon Use (2.8%)

Factors supporting this outcome:

• Expanded nuclear doctrine allowing nuclear response to conventional threats
• Degradation of conventional military capabilities
• Potential desperation if facing major battlefield losses
• Risk of miscalculation in escalating conflict

Outcome 2: No Nuclear Weapon Use (97.3%)

Factors supporting this outcome:

• Nuclear threats primarily used for deterrence and negotiation
• Focus on conventional military rebuilding and restructuring
• International deterrence mechanisms remain effective
• High costs and risks of nuclear escalation
• Historical pattern of nuclear restraint

Key Factors to Watch

Political Developments

• Russian presidential election (March 2024)
• Changes in Western support for Ukraine
• NATO responses to Russian actions

Military Factors

• Progress of Ukraine's counteroffensive
• Implementation of Russia's military restructuring
• Conventional force capabilities and limitations

International Relations

• Effectiveness of Western sanctions
• Diplomatic engagement levels
• Response of key players like China and India

Recent Developments

• Significant increase in Russian military budget for 2024
• New nuclear doctrine expanding potential use scenarios
• Military reorganization and force generation efforts
• Continued reliance on nuclear deterrence messaging