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Will Russia capture Chasiv Yar before December?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Chasiv Yar railroad station located on Pryvokazlna Vulytsia by November 30, 2024 at 11:59 PM ET. The railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by November 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”. Once Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Train Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Chasiv+Yar+Train+Station.png Chasiv Yar Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Chasiv+Yar+Ukraine+Location.png The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.

Event Details

Total Volume: $1.1M
24h Volume: $15.6K
Total Liquidity: $3.7K
Markets: 1
Event Ends: 11/30/2024

Event Analysis

Summary

The prediction market focuses on whether Russia will capture the Chasiv Yar railroad station by November 30, 2024. Chasiv Yar is a strategically important location near Bakhmut in eastern Ukraine, and its capture would represent a significant advance for Russian forces in the region. Based on recent military assessments and battlefield developments, Russia faces significant challenges in capturing Chasiv Yar within the next two days. While Russian forces have been conducting offensive operations in the area, they have made only limited tactical gains, and Ukrainian forces maintain strong defensive positions. The extremely short timeframe remaining before market resolution, combined with the current military situation, makes a Russian capture highly improbable at this point.

Analysis

Military Situation Analysis

Current Battlefield Context

  • Chasiv Yar sits west of Bakhmut and serves as a key transportation hub
  • Russian forces have been conducting offensive operations in the broader region
  • Ukrainian forces maintain defensive positions and have demonstrated effective resistance
  • Recent assessments indicate limited Russian tactical gains in the area

Russian Capabilities and Challenges

  • Russia has increased troop numbers but faces quality and coordination issues
  • Operational effectiveness remains constrained by logistical challenges
  • Recent mobilization efforts have not translated into significant battlefield advantages
  • Command structure issues persist, affecting offensive capabilities

Ukrainian Defense Factors

  • Ukrainian forces have shown resilience in defensive operations
  • Western military aid continues to support Ukrainian defensive capabilities
  • Effective use of artillery and HIMARS systems to disrupt Russian advances
  • Strong motivation to maintain control of strategic transportation hubs

Key Factors Affecting Outcome

  1. Extremely short timeframe (2 days) until market resolution
  2. Current distance from Russian positions to objective
  3. Weather and terrain conditions
  4. Ukrainian defensive preparations
  5. Russian offensive momentum (or lack thereof)

Recent Developments

  • No significant Russian breakthrough reported in recent weeks
  • Continued Ukrainian defensive success in the region
  • Weather conditions limiting major offensive operations
  • No indication of imminent Russian capture of the objective

Prediction

Given the extremely short timeframe remaining until market resolution (2 days) and the current military situation, I assess with high confidence that Russia will NOT capture Chasiv Yar by November 30, 2024. The current market price of 96.8% for "No" appears well-justified given the immediate timeframe and battlefield conditions. I would assign a 99%+ probability to "No" given the tactical situation and time constraints.

Will Russia capture Chasiv Yar before December?

Yes:1.0%
No:99.0%
Confidence: 9/10
Reasoning Score: 8/10

Sources

Market Options

Will Russia capture Chasiv Yar before December?

Yes
1.4%
No
98.6%
Liquidity: $3.7K
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