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Sotomayor steps down from Supreme Court before inauguration?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Justice Sonia Sotomayor formally announces her retirement from the U.S. Supreme Court by January 19, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." An announcement from Sotomayor will qualify regardless of whether her retirement has gone into effect by this market's end date. The resolution source will be public statements from Sonia Sotomayor, one of her official representatives, and/or the government of the United States.
Event Details
Total Volume: $76.6K
24h Volume: $1.8K
Total Liquidity: $14.1K
Markets: 1
Event Ends: 1/19/2025
Event Analysis
Summary
The question of whether Supreme Court Justice Sonia Sotomayor will step down before January 19, 2025, has significant political and judicial implications. Recent reporting indicates that despite pressure from some Democrats to retire while President Biden can nominate her replacement, Sotomayor has expressed no intention of stepping down. Multiple sources close to her have confirmed she plans to remain on the Court.
The context includes her current age (70), her managed health conditions (Type 1 diabetes), and the political importance of her role as the first Latina Supreme Court Justice. The upcoming 2024 presidential election adds further weight to any retirement decisions, as the ability to confirm a successor depends heavily on both presidential and Senate control.
Analysis
Current Situation
- Justice Sotomayor is currently 70 years old
- She has served on the Supreme Court since 2009
- She manages Type 1 diabetes but is reported to be in good health
- She is the only sitting justice who travels with a medic
Political Context
- Democrats control both the presidency and Senate through January 2025
- Progressive Democrats have urged retirement to ensure a liberal replacement
- Sotomayor remains an important liberal voice on the 6-3 conservative court
- Her role as first Latina justice adds complexity to retirement pressure
Key Factors Affecting Likelihood
Supporting Early Retirement:
- Age and health considerations
- Democratic control of presidency and Senate
- Risk of Republican winning 2024 election
- Historical precedent of RBG situation
Against Early Retirement:
- Direct statements from sources close to her indicating no plans to retire
- Good current health despite medical conditions
- Active engagement in current cases and oral arguments
- Importance of her voice on the court
- No public pressure from Democratic leadership
Recent Developments
- Multiple recent articles confirm she has no plans to retire
- She continues to be actively engaged in major cases
- She has maintained a full schedule of appearances and engagements
- Sources consistently report she is in good health
Factors to Watch
- Her health status
- 2024 election polling
- Senate race developments
- Major court decisions
- Public statements or signals from Sotomayor
Prediction
Based on the available evidence, I predict with high confidence that Justice Sotomayor will NOT announce her retirement before January 19, 2025. Multiple reliable sources indicate she has no plans to retire, and her continued active engagement suggests she intends to remain on the Court. While health issues or political developments could change this calculation, the probability of retirement appears very low, approximately 5%.
Will Sonia Sotomayor step down from Supreme Court before inauguration?
Yes:5.0%
No:95.0%
Confidence: 8/10
Reasoning Score: 9/10
Sources
- https://www.theblaze.com/news/sonia-sotomayor-no-retirement-democrat
- https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2024/03/sonia-sotomayor-should-retire/677764/
- https://radaronline.com/p/supreme-court-sonia-sotomayor-only-sitting-justice-travel-medic/
- https://www.law.berkeley.edu/article/us-supreme-court-justice-sonia-sotomayor-offers-candid-insights-during-visit-to-berkeley-law/