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Will stranded astronauts leave the ISS in 2024?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NASA astronauts Suni Williams and Butch Wilmore depart the International Space Station (ISS) by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2024. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The astronauts will be considered to have departed if they are if they are on a spacecraft which has undocked from the ISS and begun its return journey to Earth. The resolution source will be official announcements from NASA, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Event Details
Total Volume: $317.3K
24h Volume: $8
Total Liquidity: $38.6K
Markets: 1
Event Ends: 12/31/2024
Event Analysis
Summary
The prediction market concerns whether NASA astronauts Suni Williams and Butch Wilmore will leave the International Space Station (ISS) in 2024. The context involves ongoing crew rotations, technical challenges, and the broader transition of ISS operations towards commercial partnerships.
Based on the available evidence from NASA announcements and recent developments, there appears to be a high probability these astronauts will NOT leave the ISS in 2024. Multiple sources indicate continued mission operations and planned crew rotations, with NASA focusing on safety and systematic approaches to crew movements. The market's current pricing of 96.5% for "No" appears well-aligned with the available evidence.
Analysis
Background
- NASA is currently managing multiple concurrent missions involving the ISS, including:
- Crew-8 mission scheduled for mid-February 2024
- Ongoing partnerships with commercial space companies
- Planned transitions in ISS operations through 2030
Analysis of Outcomes
"Yes" Outcome (3.5%)
Supporting Factors:
- Regular crew rotations continue to occur
- Multiple spacecraft options available (SpaceX Dragon, Soyuz)
- NASA maintains strong focus on crew safety and return capabilities
Challenging Factors:
- Technical delays and safety concerns frequently impact schedules
- Weather conditions can delay departures
- Complex coordination required between international partners
"No" Outcome (96.5%)
Supporting Factors:
- Recent mission postponements and technical challenges
- NASA's careful approach to crew safety
- Extended mission timelines becoming more common
- Weather and technical factors regularly causing delays
Key Risk Factors:
- Geopolitical tensions affecting space cooperation
- Technical challenges with spacecraft
- Weather impacts on launch/return windows
- Complex coordination requirements
Recent Developments
- Crew-8 mission preparations for February 2024
- Ongoing assessment of technical challenges
- Weather-related delays affecting recent missions
- Extended mission durations becoming more common
Factors to Monitor
- Weather conditions affecting launch windows
- Technical readiness of spacecraft
- Geopolitical developments affecting space cooperation
- NASA announcements regarding crew rotations
Prediction
Based on comprehensive analysis of available evidence, I assess a 97% probability that the astronauts will NOT leave the ISS in 2024. This aligns closely with current market pricing. The combination of technical challenges, safety priorities, and operational complexities strongly suggests continued presence through 2024.
Will stranded astronauts leave the ISS in 2024?
Yes:3.0%
No:97.0%
Confidence: 8/10
Reasoning Score: 9/10
Sources
- https://www.nasa.gov/news-release/nasa-sets-briefings-for-crew-8-international-space-station-missions/
- https://www.space.com/nasa-one-year-astronaut-mission-timeline
- https://blogs.nasa.gov/spacestation/2023/12/12/dragon-undocking-postponed-to-friday/
- https://www.nasa.gov/faqs-the-international-space-station-transition-plan/