OddsChad
← Back to Events

Chopsticks catch SpaceX's 7th Starship Super Heavy?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the booster for the seventh Starship-SuperHeavy test is successfully caught by the chopsticks on the Orbital Launch Tower during it's landing attempt. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A successful catch is defined as the chopsticks capturing and supporting the booster without it falling to the ground or causing catastrophic damage during the landing process. This market pertains to the seventh Starship launch. If the rocket lifts off the pad, it will be considered the seventh Starship launch, and this market will resolve based on it. If the rocket does not lift off the pad, it will not be considered the seventh launch, and this market will stay open until the seventh launch has occurred. If the seventh launch has not occurred by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.

Event Details

Total Volume: $64.9K
24h Volume: $588
Total Liquidity: $10.0K
Markets: 1
Event Ends: 6/30/2025

Event Analysis

Summary

SpaceX achieved a historic milestone in October 2024 by successfully catching a Super Heavy booster using its "chopsticks" mechanism during Starship's fifth test flight. This breakthrough demonstrates the viability of SpaceX's innovative landing system and sets an important precedent for future launches. The prediction market focuses on whether SpaceX can replicate this success during its seventh Starship launch, with a deadline of June 30, 2025. Given the recent successful catch and SpaceX's rapid iteration approach, there is growing confidence in their ability to achieve this goal, though significant technical and regulatory challenges remain.

Analysis

Recent Developments

  • First successful chopsticks catch achieved during 5th test flight (October 2024)
  • SpaceX demonstrated improved booster control and landing capabilities
  • FAA showing increased cooperation with expedited approvals
  • Launch cadence accelerating with preparations for future tests

Technical Analysis

Success Factors:

  • Proven catch mechanism functionality from 5th flight
  • Multiple successful booster control demonstrations
  • Iterative improvements between launches
  • Infrastructure readiness at Starbase

Risk Factors:

  • Complex technical requirements for precise landing
  • Previous launch failures and RUDs
  • Weather and environmental conditions
  • Regulatory approval timelines

Launch Timeline Analysis

  1. Current Status (Nov 2024):

    • 5th launch completed successfully
    • 6th launch likely in early 2025
    • 7th launch projected before June 2025

  2. Critical Milestones:

    • Continued successful launches
    • Regulatory clearances
    • Hardware readiness
    • Weather conditions

Market Impact Factors

Positive Indicators:

  • Recent successful catch demonstration
  • Increased launch frequency
  • Improved FAA cooperation
  • SpaceX's strong operational track record

Risk Considerations:

  • Technical complexity
  • Time constraints
  • Regulatory uncertainties
  • Previous launch failures

Trading Recommendations

  1. Long Position (Yes):

    • Enter now while confidence is high
    • Monitor launch preparations
    • Watch for successful 6th launch

  2. Short Position (No):

    • Consider hedging against delays
    • Watch for technical setbacks
    • Monitor regulatory developments

Prediction

Based on the successful demonstration of the chopsticks catch system during the 5th launch and SpaceX's rapid technological progress, I predict a 70% probability of successful catch during the 7th launch, assuming it occurs before the June 2025 deadline. The primary risks are technical challenges and potential launch delays.

Chopsticks catch SpaceX's 7th Starship Super Heavy?

Yes:70.0%
No:30.0%
Confidence: 8/10
Reasoning Score: 9/10

Sources

Market Options

Chopsticks catch SpaceX's 7th Starship Super Heavy?

Yes
67.5%
No
32.5%
Liquidity: $10.0K
Trade →