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Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to Midnight?

The Doomsday Clock is a symbolic clock face that represents the likelihood of a man-made global catastrophe, maintained since 1947 by the members of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. The closer the clock is set to midnight, the closer the scientists believe the world is to global disaster. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Doomsday Clock is set closer to midnight (i.e. closer than 90 seconds to midnight, see https://thebulletin.org/doomsday-clock/#nav_menu) during the yearly meeting of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists scheduled for January 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the Doomsday Clock setting is delayed this market's resolution may be delayed until the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists' 2025 release is published. If no release is published by June 30, 2025 ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be information released by the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists.

Event Details

Total Volume: $17.7K
24h Volume: $220
Total Liquidity: $11.0K
Markets: 1
Event Ends: 1/31/2025

Event Analysis

Summary

The Doomsday Clock, maintained by the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, currently stands at 90 seconds to midnight - the closest it has ever been to catastrophe. This setting was reaffirmed in January 2024 due to ongoing threats from nuclear weapons, climate change, and emerging technologies like AI. The key question is whether conditions will deteriorate further to warrant moving the clock even closer to midnight by January 2025. Given that we're already at an unprecedented level of risk, and the Bulletin has historically been conservative about moving the clock closer to midnight, the bar for an additional move toward catastrophe would be quite high.

Analysis

Current State of Global Risks

Nuclear Threats

  • Ongoing war in Ukraine with continued nuclear rhetoric from Russia
  • Modernization of nuclear arsenals by US, Russia, and China
  • Development of new nuclear capabilities and defense systems
  • Recent mass production of nuclear shelters in Russia indicates escalating tensions

Climate Change

  • 2023 was hottest year on record
  • Insufficient progress on emissions reduction
  • Increasing frequency of climate disasters
  • Mixed progress on nuclear energy expansion as climate solution

Technological Risks

  • Rapid advancement of AI capabilities
  • Concerns about AI's role in disinformation and nuclear command systems
  • Developments in genetic engineering and biological threats
  • Insufficient international governance frameworks

Key Factors to Watch

Geopolitical Developments

  • Evolution of Ukraine conflict
  • US-China relations
  • Middle East tensions
  • North Korea's nuclear program

Climate Action

  • Implementation of COP28 commitments
  • Extreme weather events
  • Progress on emissions reduction

Technology Governance

  • AI regulation development
  • International cooperation on emerging threats
  • Biotech safety protocols

Analysis of Market Outcomes

A move closer than 90 seconds would require:

  1. Significant deterioration in current threats
  2. New existential risks emerging
  3. Consensus among Bulletin scientists that unprecedented warning is needed

The historical conservatism of the Bulletin and the already extreme current setting suggest maintaining or improving the current time is more likely than moving closer.

Prediction

I predict a 25% chance the Doomsday Clock will move closer to midnight by January 2025. While global risks remain severe, the unprecedented current setting and historical patterns suggest the Bulletin would require extraordinary developments to justify an even more dire warning.

Will_Doomsday_Clock_Move_Closer

Yes:25.0%
No:75.0%
Confidence: 7/10
Reasoning Score: 8/10

Sources

Market Options

Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to Midnight?

Yes
79.5%
No
20.5%
Liquidity: $11.0K
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