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Price of eggs goes up in Trump's first month?

This market is on the price of eggs, (Grade A, Large, Cost per Dozen) as measured by the the Bureau of Labor Statistics (see: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000708111). This market will resolve to “Yes” if the price of eggs, is higher in the Month of February 2025 than in January 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No“. The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm) for February 2025 currently scheduled to be released on March 12, 2025.

Event Details

Total Volume: $22.0K
24h Volume: $1.3K
Total Liquidity: $8.3K
Markets: 1
Event Ends: 4/12/2025

Event Analysis

Summary

This prediction market focuses on whether egg prices will increase from January to February 2025, during what would be Trump's first month back in office if he wins the 2024 election. The question intersects with broader economic trends, seasonal patterns in egg prices, and potential policy impacts of a presidential transition. Recent history shows significant volatility in egg prices, with dramatic spikes (like the 229% increase in January 2023) followed by periods of normalization. Current data suggests egg prices have stabilized at more typical levels, though still higher than pre-pandemic baselines. The market's near-even split (52% Yes / 48% No) reflects legitimate uncertainty about both seasonal factors and potential economic policy shifts during a presidential transition period.

Analysis

Economic Background

Current Conditions

  • Inflation has moderated significantly from 2022-2023 peaks
  • Food prices overall increased 20.3% during Biden's term
  • The Federal Reserve is expected to begin cutting rates in 2024, which could impact food prices
  • Egg prices specifically have shown high volatility but have normalized from 2023 peaks

Seasonal Patterns

  • Egg prices typically face upward pressure during winter months
  • Holiday season demand (December-January) often drives temporary price increases
  • February historically shows mixed patterns as post-holiday demand adjusts

Outcome Analysis

Scenario 1: Price Increase (52%)

Factors supporting increase:

  • Seasonal winter pressure on prices
  • Potential supply chain disruptions during political transition
  • Risk of avian flu outbreaks (killed 14M chickens in late 2023)
  • Uncertainty around energy policy changes affecting agricultural costs

Scenario 2: Price Decrease/Stable (48%)

Factors supporting decrease/stability:

  • Current price normalization trends
  • Improved supply chain resilience
  • Post-holiday demand reduction
  • Potential positive effects of anticipated Fed rate cuts

Key Factors to Watch

  1. Avian Health
  • Monitor bird flu outbreaks
  • Track egg-laying hen population numbers
  1. Supply Chain Metrics
  • Feed costs
  • Transportation costs
  • Energy prices
  1. Political Transition Impact
  • Early policy signals from Trump transition team
  • Energy policy proposals affecting agricultural costs
  1. Economic Indicators
  • Inflation trends
  • Interest rate decisions
  • Overall food price indices

Recent Developments

  • Egg prices have normalized from historical spikes
  • Current prices considered "reasonable" in real terms when adjusted for inflation
  • Some analysts suggest public perception of high egg prices is more "memetic" than based on current market conditions

Prediction

Based on the available evidence, I predict a slightly higher likelihood of egg prices decreasing or remaining stable (55%) versus increasing (45%) from January to February 2025. While seasonal factors and transition uncertainty create upward pressure, the current price normalization trend and improved market stability suggest resistance to another significant price increase. Confidence level is moderate (6/10) given the long time horizon and multiple variables involved.

Price of eggs goes up in Trump's first month?

Yes:45.0%
No:55.0%
Confidence: 6/10
Reasoning Score: 7/10

Sources

Market Options

Price of eggs goes up in Trump's first month?

Yes
51.5%
No
48.5%
Liquidity: $8.3K
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