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Will the US ban sharing deepfake nudes in 2024?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government bans sharing sexually explicit deepfakes, defined as sexually explicit images generated by AI without the subject's consent, by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Event Details

Total Volume: $171.8K
24h Volume: $25.4K
Total Liquidity: $31.8K
Markets: 1
Event Ends: 12/31/2024

Event Analysis

Summary

The question of whether the US will ban sharing deepfake nudes in 2024 has gained significant attention due to several pieces of proposed legislation, including the DEFIANCE Act and the COPIED Act. These bipartisan efforts aim to address the growing concern over non-consensual sexually explicit deepfake content, which has seen a dramatic increase in recent years. With just over a month remaining in 2024, the likelihood of passing and implementing federal legislation to ban deepfake nudes appears extremely low. While there is strong bipartisan support and multiple legislative proposals, the timeline for passing comprehensive federal legislation, combined with the remaining congressional calendar, makes it highly improbable that such a ban will be enacted before December 31, 2024.

Analysis

Legislative Background

  • Multiple bills have been introduced in 2024 addressing deepfake content:
    • DEFIANCE Act (Durbin-Graham)
    • COPIED Act (Cantwell-Blackburn-Heinrich)
    • No AI FRAUD Act
    • DEEPFAKES Accountability Act

Current Status

  • No federal legislation has passed both chambers
  • Congress has limited working days remaining in 2024
  • State-level action is progressing but federal action remains pending

Key Factors Affecting Outcome

Supporting Factors for Ban

  • Strong bipartisan support
  • Growing public concern
  • Documented increase in deepfake abuse
  • Multiple legislative proposals

Obstacles to Ban

  • Limited time remaining in 2024
  • Complex legislative process
  • Competing priorities in Congress
  • Need for implementation period

Recent Developments

  • DEFIANCE Act introduced with bipartisan support
  • State-level legislation advancing in multiple states
  • Increased media attention and public awareness
  • Technology industry engagement in discussions

Market Analysis

The current market price of 0.5% for "Yes" appears appropriate given:

  1. Extremely limited time remaining in 2024
  2. Lack of passed legislation to date
  3. Normal timelines for federal implementation
  4. Historical precedent for legislative timing

Prediction

I predict with high confidence (9/10) that the US will NOT ban sharing deepfake nudes in 2024. While legislative momentum exists, the timeline makes passage and implementation virtually impossible before year-end. The current market price of 99.5% for "No" accurately reflects this reality.

Will the US ban sharing deepfake nudes in 2024?

Yes:0.5%
No:99.5%
Confidence: 9/10
Reasoning Score: 8/10

Sources

Market Options

Will the US ban sharing deepfake nudes in 2024?

Yes
0.5%
No
99.5%
Liquidity: $31.8K
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