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Will Trump declare a national emergency in his first 100 days?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump formally declares a national emergency under the National Emergencies Act (NEA) by April 29, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A national emergency must actually be declared for this market to resolve to "Yes" - it will not be enough for Trump to announce an intention to declare a national emergency. This market's resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration.
Event Details
Total Volume: $10.2K
24h Volume: $59
Total Liquidity: $10.0K
Markets: 1
Event Ends: 4/29/2025
Event Analysis
Summary
The prediction market centers on whether Donald Trump will declare a national emergency within his first 100 days in office (January 20 - April 29, 2025) if elected president in 2024. Recent reporting indicates Trump has explicitly stated intentions to declare an emergency related to immigration and border security, though stating an intention does not guarantee action within the specific timeframe.
This question intersects with broader debates about presidential emergency powers, with multiple sources indicating bipartisan concern about potential abuse of these powers and ongoing reform efforts. Key considerations include Trump's past use of emergency declarations, current political climate, and specific triggers that might prompt such action.
Analysis
Background on Emergency Powers
- The National Emergencies Act (NEA) grants presidents broad authority to declare emergencies
- Currently 40+ active emergency declarations exist
- Bipartisan reform efforts are underway to limit presidential emergency powers
- Trump previously used emergency powers for border wall funding in 2019
Analysis of Potential Outcomes
YES Outcome Factors
- Trump has explicitly stated intentions to declare immigration emergency
- Immigration remains a key campaign issue
- Border crossing numbers remain elevated
- Trump has historical precedent of using emergency powers
- First 100 days often sees bold executive actions
NO Outcome Factors
- Bipartisan push for emergency powers reform could create hesitation
- Legal challenges could delay implementation
- Alternative policy tools may be preferred
- Political cost of immediate emergency declaration
- Congress may signal strong opposition
Key Factors to Watch
- Border statistics through early 2025
- Progress of emergency powers reform legislation
- Trump's pre-inauguration statements
- Cabinet appointments signaling enforcement priorities
- Congressional Republican positioning on emergency powers
Recent Developments
- Trump confirmed plans for mass deportation program using emergency powers
- Bipartisan support growing for Lee Amendment to reform emergency powers
- Immigration remains central campaign issue
- Border encounters remain at elevated levels
Prediction
Based on available evidence, I estimate a 65% probability that Trump will declare a national emergency within his first 100 days if elected. The explicit statement of intention, combined with his historical willingness to use emergency powers and the ongoing focus on immigration, suggests this is more likely than not. However, reform efforts and potential political/legal obstacles create significant uncertainty.
Will Trump declare a national emergency in first 100 days?
Yes:65.0%
No:35.0%
Confidence: 7/10
Reasoning Score: 8/10
Sources
- https://fortune.com/2024/11/18/trump-mass-deportation-plan-national-emergency-us-military-alien-enemies-act/
- https://www.lawfaremedia.org/article/emergency-powers-reform-within-grasp
- https://www.cato.org/cato-handbook-policymakers/cato-handbook-policymakers-9th-edition-2022/emergency-powers-reform
- https://www.wired.com/story/donald-trump-emergency-powers/
Market Options
Will Trump declare a national emergency in his first 100 days?
Yes
68.5%
No
31.5%
Liquidity: $10.0K
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