OddsChad
← Back to Events

Will Trump formally nominate Tulsi Gabbard to the cabinet?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump as President of the United States formally nominates Tulsi Gabbard for a Cabinet position by January 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A Cabinet position is defined as any of the heads of the 15 executive departments or a role formally designated as Cabinet-level by the President. Advisory roles will not qualify for this market. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Event Details

Total Volume: $90.8K
24h Volume: $751
Total Liquidity: $2.0K
Markets: 1
Event Ends: 1/31/2025

Event Analysis

Summary

Based on the search results and recent developments, there appears to be significant evidence that Donald Trump intends to nominate Tulsi Gabbard as Director of National Intelligence (DNI) in his potential administration. Multiple credible news sources confirm this intention, though the nomination faces notable opposition from both Democrats and Republicans due to Gabbard's controversial positions and perceived alignment with Russian interests. The key consideration is whether this stated intention will translate into a formal nomination by the January 31, 2025 deadline. While Trump has indicated his preference for Gabbard, several factors could impede a formal nomination, including Senate opposition led by Mitch McConnell, internal GOP resistance, and potential public backlash. The timing of the market end date relative to the typical transition timeline is also crucial.

Analysis

Background & Context

Political Landscape

  • Trump has won re-election in this scenario and is forming his administration
  • Project 2025 database being used for vetting potential appointees
  • Significant internal GOP tension over isolationist vs. traditional positions
  • McConnell signaling resistance to controversial nominees

Gabbard's Position

  • Former Democrat turned Republican
  • Controversial views on foreign policy, especially regarding Russia and Syria
  • Currently positioned as Trump's choice for DNI
  • Faces skepticism from intelligence community and former colleagues

Key Factors Affecting Probability

Supporting Factors

  • Trump has publicly indicated intention to nominate
  • Gabbard's alignment with Trump's current policy positions
  • Her recent support of Trump and MAGA movement
  • Trump's demonstrated willingness to make controversial appointments

Opposing Factors

  • Senate GOP resistance led by McConnell
  • Intelligence community opposition
  • Controversial past statements and positions
  • Potential confirmation challenges
  • Public perception concerns

Timeline Considerations

  • Market ends January 31, 2025
  • Typical transition period allows time for formal nominations
  • Senate confirmation process timing
  • Potential for alternate candidates to emerge

Recent Developments

  1. Multiple news sources confirm Trump's intention to nominate
  2. Growing opposition from former colleagues
  3. McConnell signaling potential resistance to controversial nominees
  4. Project 2025 database being utilized despite earlier disavowal

Prediction

Given the available evidence, I assess a 75% probability that Trump will formally nominate Tulsi Gabbard for DNI by January 31, 2025. While there is clear intention to nominate and public statements supporting this, significant opposition and procedural hurdles create meaningful uncertainty. The relatively early market end date provides sufficient time for the nomination process while limiting exposure to potential complications. Confidence Level: 7/10 Reasoning Quality: 8/10

Will Trump formally nominate Tulsi Gabbard to the cabinet?

Yes:75.0%
No:25.0%
Confidence: 7/10
Reasoning Score: 8/10

Sources

Market Options

Will Trump formally nominate Tulsi Gabbard to the cabinet?

Yes
77.0%
No
22.9%
Liquidity: $2.0K
Trade →