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Will Trump get more votes than 2020?

According to uselectionatlas.org Donald Trump received 74,225,926 votes in the 2020 Presidential election (see: https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/). This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump receives 74,225,927 or more votes in the 2024 U.S. Presidential election. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the total number of votes for Donald Trump in the 2024 Presidential election according to uselectionatlas.org once their dataset includes the certified vote totals for all U.S. States and the District of Columbia. If a recount is initiated before certification, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is certified. If a recount occurs after uselectionatlas.org has published vote totals based on the final certifications, the recount will not be considered. If there are no outstanding recounts, and electionatlas.org has not published total vote numbers based on the state certified results by December 17, 2024, 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the total vote numbers from the United States Elections Project (electproject.org). If the United States Elections Project has not published certified vote totals, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

Event Details

Total Volume: $191.1K
24h Volume: $4
Total Liquidity: $6.6K
Markets: 1
Event Ends: 12/17/2024

Event Analysis

Summary

The prediction market is focused on whether Donald Trump will receive more total votes in the 2024 presidential election than the 74,225,926 votes he received in 2020. This represents a key metric for measuring Trump's electoral performance and voter mobilization capability in 2024. Current polling and electoral dynamics suggest strong momentum for Trump heading into 2024. Despite ongoing legal challenges, Trump maintains robust support among his base while potentially expanding his appeal to new voter demographics. The political environment, marked by concerns over inflation and Biden's leadership, combined with historically high expected turnout, points to conditions favorable for Trump to exceed his 2020 vote total.

Analysis

Economic Context

  • Inflation remains a key voter concern, though moderating from peak levels
  • Federal Reserve policy has maintained higher interest rates, impacting consumer sentiment
  • Economic uncertainty could drive higher voter turnout and engagement

Analysis of Potential Outcomes

Outcome: Trump Exceeds 2020 Vote Total (74,225,926+)

Supporting Factors:

  • Strong Republican base enthusiasm and mobilization
  • Expansion of support among Hispanic and working-class voters
  • High expected turnout driven by political polarization
  • Effective ground operations in key states
  • Voter dissatisfaction with Biden administration

Risks:

  • Legal challenges could dampen turnout
  • Third party candidates may siphon votes
  • Democratic counter-mobilization

Outcome: Trump Falls Short of 2020 Total

Supporting Factors:

  • Legal issues could depress turnout
  • Strong Democratic opposition
  • Potential voter fatigue
  • Third party vote splitting

Risks:

  • Currently appears less likely given political environment
  • Would require significant drop in base enthusiasm

Key Factors to Watch

  1. Legal Developments
  • Ongoing court cases and potential impacts on campaign
  • State ballot access challenges
  1. Voter Turnout Indicators
  • Primary participation rates
  • Early voting numbers
  • Registration trends
  1. Campaign Operations
  • Ground game effectiveness
  • Fundraising success
  • Message resonance
  1. Economic Conditions
  • Inflation trends
  • Job market stability
  • Consumer sentiment

Recent Developments

  • Trump maintains strong polling position
  • Republican base remains highly motivated
  • Campaign infrastructure showing strong organization
  • Legal challenges ongoing but haven't significantly impacted support

Prediction

Based on current evidence, Trump is very likely (95%+ probability) to exceed his 2020 vote total of 74,225,926. The combination of base enthusiasm, expanded demographic appeal, and high expected turnout creates favorable conditions. While legal challenges pose risks, they haven't significantly dampened support. The market price of 99.4% appears somewhat aggressive but directionally correct.

Will Trump get more votes than 2020?

Yes:95.0%
No:5.0%
Confidence: 8/10
Reasoning Score: 7/10

Sources

Market Options

Will Trump get more votes than 2020?

Yes
99.7%
No
0.4%
Liquidity: $6.6K
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