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Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump is elected to be President of the United States of America and Hunter Biden receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve by Donald Trump by April 19, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Donald Trump loses the 2024 US Presidential Election, this market will immediately resolve to "No". If it becomes impossible for Trump issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No". The resolution source for whether Trump is elected or not is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources have not called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2025) this market will resolve based on the person inaugurated. The primary resolution source for whether Hunter is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Event Details

Total Volume: $184.7K
24h Volume: $0
Total Liquidity: $22.3K
Markets: 1
Event Ends: 4/19/2025

Event Analysis

Summary

The prediction market focuses on whether Donald Trump will pardon Hunter Biden if elected president in 2024, with a resolution deadline of April 19, 2025. This complex question involves multiple contingencies, primarily Trump's electoral success and his willingness to pardon a political opponent's son who faces serious legal challenges. Recent developments have significantly impacted the likelihood of this outcome. Hunter Biden faces multiple federal charges, including tax-related crimes and gun violations. Meanwhile, Trump himself faces numerous legal challenges and has publicly indicated an aggressive stance toward political opponents, suggesting he would be more likely to prosecute than pardon the Biden family if re-elected. These factors, combined with the requirement for Trump to first win the election, make a pardon scenario increasingly unlikely.

Analysis

Political and Legal Context

Current Status of Key Players

  • Hunter Biden faces:
    • Nine tax-related charges from Special Counsel David Weiss
    • Three felony charges related to gun purchases
    • Ongoing Congressional investigations
  • Donald Trump:
    • Running for president while facing multiple criminal indictments
    • Has expressed intentions to prosecute political opponents if elected
    • Historically used pardons for political allies and supporters

Path to Resolution

For the market to resolve "Yes":

  1. Trump must win the 2024 election
  2. He must choose to pardon Hunter Biden by April 19, 2025
  3. No circumstances can arise making the pardon impossible

Key factors making "No" more likely:

  • Trump's documented hostility toward the Biden family
  • Recent statements about prosecuting opponents
  • Hunter Biden's escalating legal troubles
  • Trump's focus on his own legal challenges

Key Factors to Watch

Electoral Dynamics

  • Current polling between Biden and Trump
  • Impact of legal proceedings on both campaigns
  • Third-party candidates' influence

Legal Developments

  • Progression of Hunter Biden's criminal cases
  • Timing of potential trials and verdicts
  • Trump's own legal situations

Political Calculations

  • Republican base reaction to potential pardon
  • Trump's strategic priorities if elected
  • Public sentiment toward Hunter Biden

Recent Developments

  • Hunter Biden's indictment on tax charges
  • Trump's increasing rhetoric about prosecuting opponents
  • Failed plea deal implications
  • Congressional investigations intensifying

Prediction

Based on the available evidence, I predict a "No" resolution with high confidence (85-90% probability). The combination of Trump needing to win the election, his demonstrated hostility toward the Biden family, and his recent statements about prosecuting opponents makes a pardon highly unlikely. The most probable scenario is either Trump losing the election (automatic "No") or winning and choosing not to pardon Hunter Biden.

Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden?

Yes:13.0%
No:87.0%
Confidence: 8/10
Reasoning Score: 9/10

Sources

Market Options

Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden?

Yes
14.5%
No
85.5%
Liquidity: $22.3K
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