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Will Trump get over 50% of the Popular Vote?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump receives over 50% of all votes cast in the 2024 U.S. Presidential election. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the total number of votes in the 2024 Presidential election according to uselectionatlas.org once their dataset includes the certified vote totals for all U.S. States and the District of Columbia. If a recount is initiated before certification, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is certified. If a recount occurs after uselectionatlas.org has published vote totals based on the final certifications, the recount will not be considered. If there are no outstanding recounts, and electionatlas.org has not published total vote numbers based on the state certified results by December 17, 2024, 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the total vote numbers from the United States Elections Project (electproject.org). If the United States Elections Project has not published certified vote totals, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

Event Details

Total Volume: $404.7K
24h Volume: $8.2K
Total Liquidity: $34.2K
Markets: 1
Event Ends: 12/17/2024

Event Analysis

Summary

The 2024 US presidential election presents a unique scenario where Donald Trump seeks to achieve something he hasn't accomplished in his previous runs - securing over 50% of the popular vote. Historical data and current polling suggest this would be a significant challenge, given that Trump received 46.8% in 2016 and 46.9% in 2020. The presence of multiple third-party candidates, including Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and potentially others, further complicates Trump's path to a majority. Combined with historical precedent showing rare instances of presidential candidates exceeding 50% in modern multi-candidate races, the market's heavy lean toward "No" appears well-justified. The emergence of independent candidates could fragment the vote, making it even more difficult for any candidate to achieve an outright majority.

Analysis

Historical Context

  • No presidential candidate has exceeded 50% in a race with significant third-party presence since 1992
  • Trump's previous performances:
    • 2016: 46.8% of popular vote
    • 2020: 46.9% of popular vote
  • Last Republican to exceed 50%: George W. Bush (50.7% in 2004)

Third-Party Impact

Confirmed Third-Party Candidates

  • Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (Independent)
  • Cornel West (Independent)
  • Jill Stein (Green Party)

Vote Splitting Effects

  • Multiple third-party candidates likely to capture 5-10% of total vote
  • Historical tendency for third-party support to decrease closer to election
  • RFK Jr. polling as high as 20% in some scenarios

Key Factors to Watch

Positive Factors for Trump

  • Base enthusiasm remains high
  • Potential Biden weakness could drive voters to Trump
  • Economic uncertainty could benefit challenger

Negative Factors

  • Never achieved 50% in previous runs
  • Multiple third-party candidates splitting vote
  • Historical rarity of exceeding 50% in modern elections
  • Current polling shows continued polarization

Recent Developments

  • Growing third-party field increases vote fragmentation
  • Polls show significant voter dissatisfaction with both major candidates
  • Historical trends suggest third-party support likely to decrease but remain significant

Prediction

Based on historical precedent, current polling, and the confirmed presence of multiple third-party candidates, there is a very low probability (approximately 2%) that Trump will exceed 50% of the popular vote. The combination of his previous performance ceiling, vote splitting from third-party candidates, and historical patterns strongly suggests he will fall short of a majority, though he could still win the presidency with a plurality.

Will Trump get over 50% of the Popular Vote?

Yes:2.0%
No:98.0%
Confidence: 9/10
Reasoning Score: 8/10

Sources

Market Options

Will Trump get over 50% of the Popular Vote?

Yes
0.9%
No
99.2%
Liquidity: $34.2K
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