The question of whether Donald Trump would remove Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve Chair within his first 100 days, if elected president in 2024, sits at the intersection of politics, economics, and institutional norms. Recent statements by Trump have oscillated between criticism of Powell as "political" and suggestions that he might allow Powell to complete his term. The market currently shows a strong consensus (91%) against removal within the first 100 days. The key tension lies between Trump's historical antagonism toward Powell and the Federal Reserve, and the practical and institutional constraints on removing a Fed Chair. While Trump has expressed interest in asserting more direct control over monetary policy, Powell's term as Chair runs until 2026, and removing him would face significant legal and political hurdles. Recent reporting suggests Trump may have moderated his stance, telling Bloomberg he would let Powell serve out his term if "doing the right thing."

Economic Background

Federal Reserve Context

• Jerome Powell currently serves as Fed Chair through May 2026
• The Fed has maintained independence from direct political control historically
• Powell was originally appointed by Trump but faced frequent criticism during Trump's first term
• Current economic conditions include:
  • Declining inflation but still above target
  • Strong labor market
  • Ongoing debate about interest rate policy

Legal & Institutional Framework

• Fed Chair can only be removed "for cause," not policy disagreements
• Removal would require significant legal justification
• Any replacement would need Senate confirmation

Outcome Analysis

Scenario 1: Removal Within 100 Days (9% Market Probability)

Supporting Factors:

• Trump's historical criticism of Powell
• Stated desire for more accommodative monetary policy
• Pattern of early administrative actions in previous term

Challenges:

• Legal constraints on removal
• Recent moderation in Trump's stance
• Political capital costs
• Senate confirmation requirements

Scenario 2: No Removal (91% Market Probability)

Supporting Factors:

• Recent Trump statements suggesting Powell could finish term
• Institutional resistance
• Legal hurdles
• Other priorities likely to dominate first 100 days
• Limited political benefit relative to cost

Key Factors to Watch

1. Trump's Campaign Rhetoric

• Monitor statements about Fed policy
• Watch for specific commitments regarding Powell

2. Economic Conditions

• Inflation trends
• Interest rate decisions
• Overall economic performance

3. Political Context

• Senate composition after 2024
• Priority level vs other initiatives
• Industry/market reaction to potential changes

Recent Developments

• Trump told Bloomberg he would let Powell finish term if "doing the right thing"
• Continued criticism of Powell as "political" in recent interviews
• Project 2025 transition planning suggests focus on other priorities in early days